US Winter Results

[bubba]

 Winter is over for the majority of Palm growing regions of the United States.  The maximum and minimum temperatures together with the growing days reveal with great precision the climate of each region.  Every year is different but this year the Western US was cool.  South Texas and South and Central Florida  were extremely warm. Subtropical regions such as Houston, New Orleans and Jacksonville  were also comparatively warm although Houston and New Orleans did experience temperatures in the low 20s F.

 Los Angeles experienced a winter high temperature in December 2016 of 80° F, a low of 40F in  January 2017 and growing days totaling 629 units for the three months. Palm Springs experienced a winter high temperature of 85°F in February 2017, a low of 37F in January 2017 with growing days totaling 778 units. Phoenix experienced a winter high of 83°F in February 2017, a low of 35° F in January 2017  with growing days totaling 735 units.  Without question, the cool nature of the winter experienced in the western United States also was created by the high precipitation and attendant cloudy conditions.

 Miami, Brownsville and Orlando all experienced extraordinarily warm conditions this winter.  Miami experienced a winter high temperature of 87°F during all three months of the winter.  The minimum temperature was 51°F in January 2017 and total growing units were 2141  for the three months. Brownsville experienced a winter high of 95°F in January 2017, a low of 30°F in January 2017 and total growing units of 1713 for the three months.  Orlando experienced a winter high temperature in February 2017 of 86°F, a low of 35°F  in January 2017  with total growing units of 1549 for the three months.  South Texas and South and Central Florida were extremely warm with over double the  growing units experienced in the western United States. In fact, Miami was nearly triple the amount of growing units experienced in the western United States. This demonstrates the  large amount of heat experienced this winter but not all together disproportionate from standard norms,  giving a clear explanation to the large number of tropical specimens grown throughout South Florida. Brownsville demonstrated the wild fluctuations attendant to that climate that allow for a large number of tropical specimens but at the same time can experience freeze damage even in extremely warm winters. This  is the limiting factor for certain tropical specimens. 

 The subtropical regions of Houston, New Orleans and Jacksonville are always interesting studies.  Houston experienced a winter high temperature of 87°F in February 2017, a low of 21F  in January 2017 with growing units totaling 1198 for the three months. New Orleans experienced a high  winter temperature of 80°F in February 2017, a low of 22°F in January 2017 with growing units totaling 932  for the three months. Jacksonville experienced a winter  high temperature of 84°F in February 2017, a low of 30°F in January 2017 with growing units totaling 1225 for  the three-months.  Northern Florida seemed to experience warmer conditions than the other subtropical climates this particular winter.

It is always interesting to observe the truly tropical climates in the United States.  Key West experienced a high temperature of 87°F in December 2016, a low of 57F in January 2017 with growing units totaling 2235 for the three months.  Honolulu, Hawaii experienced a winter high temperature of 86°F in December 2016, a low of 60F in December 2016 and total growing units of 2120 for the three months. It is interesting to note that Miami actually experienced a greater number of growing units compared to Honolulu this winter. 

 

 

[TexasColdHardyPalms]

Great synopsis.  

[bubba]

A review of winter 2015-2016 from March 2016 post is interesting:

Los Angeles  had a maximum temperature of 90°F during last year's winter with a  minimum temperature of 36°F and growing day units of 886.  Palm Springs had a maximum temperature of 91°F during last year's winter with a minimum temperature of 33°F and  growing day units of 914.  Phoenix had a maximum temperature of 90°F during last year's winter with a minimum temperature of 34°F and  growing day units of 777. Compare this to the  Western winter numbers of this year for contrast. 

 Miami had a maximum temperature of 86°F during last year's winter with a minimum temperature of 46°F and growing day units of 1898.  Brownsville had a maximum temperature of 92°F during last year's winter with a minimum temperature of 38°F and growing day units of 1281.  Orlando had a maximum temperature of 86°F during last year's winter with a minimum temperature 36°F and growing day units of 1373.

Key West  had a maximum temperature of 84°F during last year's winter with a minimum temperature of 55°F and growing day units of 2028.  Honolulu had a maximum temperature of 87°F during last year's winter with a minimum temperature of 63°F and growing day units of 2284.  Unfortunately, my summary from last year did not  include Houston, New Orleans and Jacksonville. 

[RedRabbit]

1 hour ago, bubba said:

Orlando had a maximum temperature of 86°F during last year's winter with a minimum temperature 36°F and growing day units of 1373.

TIA had 34f so Orlando beats Tampa once again. 

[bubba]

Mr. Red Rabit, 

I have never understood how Orlando could be warmer than Tampa. I understand urban effect but the interior nature of Orlando has always caused me to believe that Tampa, on the Gulf, should experience an advantage.

In my review of 2016-2017 for Tampa the winter maximum temperature was 87°F while the minimum was 35°F. The growing day units were 1663 compared to  1549  for Orlando. Accordingly, I am not certain how it can be maintained the  Orlando climate is warmer. What information do you have to suggest anything to contrary ?

 

 

[Xenon]

Not just extraordinarily warm, but the warmest on record!

Avg. temp. (*F) Dec/Jan/Feb

Houston: 60.4/60.7/67

Brownsville: 67.6/66.3/73.3

McAllen: 67.9/67.7/75.3

So anywhere from 5-7 degrees above average for Dec/Jan to a full 10 degrees (!) above average for February.

Aside from the brief cold wave that brought temps into the low 20s in Houston, winter was almost a non-event. Almost no extended cool periods at all, most days were in the 70s/80s. Warmest winter I've ever experienced. Most trees started flowering/leafing out in early February (nearly a month ahead schedule) and it already feels like we are deep into spring. 

 

[RedRabbit]

21 hours ago, bubba said:

Mr. Red Rabit, 

I have never understood how Orlando could be warmer than Tampa. I understand urban effect but the interior nature of Orlando has always caused me to believe that Tampa, on the Gulf, should experience an advantage.

In my review of 2016-2017 for Tampa the winter maximum temperature was 87°F while the minimum was 35°F. The growing day units were 1663 compared to  1549  for Orlando. Accordingly, I am not certain how it can be maintained the  Orlando climate is warmer. What information do you have to suggest anything to contrary ?

 

 

Tampa International Airport and Orlando Executive Airport have almost identical average annual lows. This year TIA had a min of 34f and OEA was 35f so Orlando happened to be warmer.  

I'm with you though that it does defies logic that Orlando would be warmer than Tampa. Tampa is on Tampa Bay, it is further south, and it is the larger city so there should be a greater urban heat effect. Its true that the warmest parts of Tampa are warmer than the warmest parts of Orlando, but one would think Tampa would be a lot warmer overall and it isn't the case. 

 

[kinzyjr]

1 hour ago, RedRabbit said:

Tampa International Airport and Orlando Executive Airport have almost identical average annual lows. This year TIA had a min of 34f and OEA was 35f so Orlando happened to be warmer.  

I'm with you though that it does defies logic that Orlando would be warmer than Tampa. Tampa is on Tampa Bay, it is further south, and it is the larger city so there should be a greater urban heat effect. Its true that the warmest parts of Tampa are warmer than the warmest parts of Orlando, but one would think Tampa would be a lot warmer overall and it isn't the case. 

 

@bubba

@RedRabbit

Not necessarily proof of anything, but just some things to consider:

1. Tampa is further west.  When cold fronts approach, they usually approach from the north or northwest.  That means the trajectory of cold fronts puts Tampa closer to the cold air in some cases.
2. While Tampa is closer to water, the water in the Atlantic is warmer than the water in the Gulf.  If the cold air does come in from the northeast, it is traveling over warmer water.
3. The record low temperatures are: Orlando (18F), Tampa (18F).  However, Tampa has only gotten down below 20F during 1 month (Dec).  Orlando, by contrast, has been below 20F during 3 months (Dec, Jan, Feb).  Further toward the Gulf, St. Petersburg has never been below 22F, and has only been below 25F during one month (Dec).
4. We've had weird things happen, like this winter when some people on the east coast had a low of 34F (colder than Orlando).  Looking at  Melbourne in particular, they have a record low of 17F.  At least by this measure, Tampa and Orlando are warmer than Melbourne, which is further south than Orlando and on the east coast.
5. Orlando is a little higher in elevation.  On some nights, that might give them a little bit of an advantage.

What can I say, it's Florida.  We could make a good case that the weather is as crazy as the drivers on I-4.

[Funkthulhu]

Can someone explain how to calculate a growing day unit, so I can quantify all these numbers?

[bubba]

Good question. For the purpose of the information in the summary, it was derived from Weather Underground based upon a base of 50F. For each day of the particular month, the high and low temperature is added together (80F+60F=140) divided by 2 (140/2= 70) minus the utilized base (70-50=20). Accordingly, for the particular day of the month in this example, the growing day unit would be 20F. The winter timeframe used is Dec.1-Feb.28, which constitutes 90 days(Dec.=31;Jan.=31;Feb.=28). The growing day units demonstrate the overall heat experienced at a particular location.

[JLeVert]

It was a great winter in Augusta, GA also.  By Accuweather's reckoning, Augusta had 5 nights below freezing, with a low of 24F on 8 January.  The other lows were in the 30F range.

At my house, there was only one hard freeze (25F) on 8 January and the other cold nights were just frosty.  No damage on anything except a few Cycads that had superficial foliage damage from actual frost on the leaves.  The ones under high shade were untouched.  No palms were hurt including ones that are really marginal here, like L. chinensis.

We had no freezes or frost for all of February.  This weekend should be coolish as well as the first of next week, but nothing below 35F, so not really a problem.  Our highs over the winter have ranged from 46F to 83F, with most highs in the 60's and low 70's.  The weirdest thing about this winter is not the highs and lows, but that it has been consistently warm.  We usually have a temperature rollercoaster in the winter, but not this year.  We're about two weeks ahead on Spring blooms.  Sabal 'tamaulipas' is about to bloom and Trachycarpus are already blooming along with the dogwoods, oaks, pines and azaleas.  It has been a banner year for camellias.

[Palmaceae]

Great synopsis of this winter Bubba, thank you. I am now praying for some good rains this spring as we certianly need it. We are seeing quite a few brush fires here so need that rain!

[SubTropicRay]

On ‎3‎/‎5‎/‎2017‎ ‎2‎:‎28‎:‎25‎, RedRabbit said:

TIA had 34f so Orlando beats Tampa once again. 

Yikes!  My low was 38F.  The Interbay Peninsula is warmer than Orlando

[RedRabbit]

7 hours ago, SubTropicRay said:

Yikes!  My low was 38F.  The Interbay Peninsula is warmer than Orlando

Yeah, Davis Islands and everything west of Westshore Blvd is definitely warmer than Orlando. A lot of the weather data out of S. Tampa is mixed though, your reading of 38f is the highest I've seen this winter. That contrasts with MacDill at just 32f. From what I saw most locations were broadly inline with TIA at around 34-35f.

Edited March 11, 2017 by RedRabbit

[AnTonY]

On 3/4/2017, 3:17:22, bubba said:

The subtropical regions of Houston, New Orleans and Jacksonville are always interesting studies.  Houston experienced a winter high temperature of 87°F in February 2017, a low of 21F  in January 2017 with growing units totaling 1198 for the three months. New Orleans experienced a high  winter temperature of 80°F in February 2017, a low of 22°F in January 2017 with growing units totaling 932  for the three months. Jacksonville experienced a winter  high temperature of 84°F in February 2017, a low of 30°F in January 2017 with growing units totaling 1225 for  the three-months.  Northern Florida seemed to experience warmer conditions than the other subtropical climates this particular winter.

 

 

Yes, the cold this past winter was focused further west than east. Seems that the PNA controls the trajectory of the cold.

[SubTropicRay]

9 hours ago, RedRabbit said:

Yeah, Davis Islands and everything west of Westshore Blvd is definitely warmer than Orlando. A lot of the weather data out of S. Tampa is mixed though, your reading of 38f is the highest I've seen this winter. That contrasts with MacDill at just 32f. From what I saw most locations were broadly inline with TIA at around 34-35f.

Throw MacDill's temps in the garbage.  The readings all around the base on Weather Underground were much higher.  I've said for years the data from that station is flawed.  My friend's on David Island never dropped below 40F all winter.  The WU station just south of me recorded their lowest low at 39F.

[gsytch]

My lowest here in New Port Richey was 35F (and windy) on that weird cold front in early January - just after a muggy 80F weekend. We went below 40F twice after that with upper 30'sF. February's lowest was 44F on two occasions but both days hit 70F. This week's cold front will definitely put a WOW factor into Florida with our coldest weather since Mid January. Frost warnings will go out for northern Florida, and they are predicting anywhere from 42F-46F here depending on the wind. After weeks of beautiful weather, we get the cold in mid March? The following week is my spring break so fingers crossed for good weather. Now, some rain would be nice before they call us a desert. It has been awfully dry for 5months. 

[Palmaceae]

I thought winter was over ! Lower 40's forcasted by the Weather Channel, but the NWS is forecasting near 40 for the Cape.

[IHB1979]

Late winter cold front pushing through.

From noaa.gov:

Indian Harbour Beach (Barrier Island Melbourne)
Thursday Morning: 44
Friday Morning: 46

Tampa
Thursday Morning: 40
Friday Morning: 45

Orlando
Thursday Morning: 37
Friday Morning: 44

[kinzyjr]

Forecast here is for 61/38 today and into Thursday morning.  Sitting at 64F at the house right now.  Hopefully, the low responds in kind.  Looks like the blankets have to come out at least one more time this winter.

[IHB1979]

46 this morning in Indian Harbour Beach. Forecast was 44.

Friday morning forecast is 48.

[Eric in Orlando]

It was a bit warmer than they were predicting. Predicted low was 38F but 42F this morning in Orlando. At my house in Altamonte Springs (12 miles NW of downtown Orlando) it was 36F.

 

[RedRabbit]

40f and no frost. Might have been 37f open yard... 

I noticed there were some big temperature differences this morning on Wunderground. There were some 20s in rural places while AMI was at 50f. (Speaking of which, AMI was the warmest place on all of the west coast second only to Bokeelia and tieing Sanibel. Marco Island was in the 40s.)

[Funkthulhu]

Yee-Haw!  We're above freezing!  60's today on the Great Plains!

[Bill H2DB]

   39.2 just past Sunrise , here in Holly Hill , along the Halifax River AKA  ICW .  

[Alan_Tampa]

I guess about 40 at my house, that's what the car sensor said. 

 

Citrus park area, near veterans

[Alicehunter2000]

Flirted with freezing up here on the cold north coast ..... don't know if it went just below or just above in my yard....indicator plants will tell the story.

[kinzyjr]

Leveled off at 40F here in the morning, but warmer in the afternoon than 64F.  No frost in my travels.  Prediction of 40F for Friday morning.  If that holds up, this will be my 3rd consecutive year with no frost.

[bubba]

Great weather down here. PBIA low was 46F and Kenlyn Rd. in PB was 55.7F. Could be last cool breeze we get until next January.

[donalt]

Hello, SubTropicRay, your post about the inaccurate data at MacDill caught my interest. Here in Orlando, frequently, the International airport reports minimum temperatures (in every season of the year) lower than the Executive Airport, and lower than my own backyard station in suburban Maitland. The most glaring difference occurred on January 9, 2002. That morning the Executive Airport minimum was 32F, while International Airport reported 25F. The same morning, my Maitland backyard reported 32. I'm not saying the International readings are inaccurate, but the location of the airport may be the explanation. OIA was built in a low lying, wet, swampy area that frequently has foggy winter mornings. Cold air seems to settle there. The Executive Airport is located in the middle of the city (east of downtown Orlando) and seems to be more representative of where the population lives. Even in summer, the minimums at OIA are a couple degrees lower than other reporting stations around the metro area. Typically,average high temperatures at OIA are about a degree warmer than average highs at OEA. Minimums average about 1.5 degrees warmer at OEA than OIA.  

[Eric in Orlando]

14 hours ago, donalt said:

Hello, SubTropicRay, your post about the inaccurate data at MacDill caught my interest. Here in Orlando, frequently, the International airport reports minimum temperatures (in every season of the year) lower than the Executive Airport, and lower than my own backyard station in suburban Maitland. The most glaring difference occurred on January 9, 2002. That morning the Executive Airport minimum was 32F, while International Airport reported 25F. The same morning, my Maitland backyard reported 32. I'm not saying the International readings are inaccurate, but the location of the airport may be the explanation. OIA was built in a low lying, wet, swampy area that frequently has foggy winter mornings. Cold air seems to settle there. The Executive Airport is located in the middle of the city (east of downtown Orlando) and seems to be more representative of where the population lives. Even in summer, the minimums at OIA are a couple degrees lower than other reporting stations around the metro area. Typically,average high temperatures at OIA are about a degree warmer than average highs at OEA. Minimums average about 1.5 degrees warmer at OEA than OIA.  

 

I remember that, 25F recorded at OIA. I was out there a couple weeks after that and there wasn't any cold damage. They had 'Mammey' crotons and Heliconia psittacorum planted out in beds the open and no damage, these should have been melted. Even the Philodendron bipinnatifidum out in the open should have had damage. Thats always been a suspect reading.

 

[IHB1979]

4 hours ago, Eric in Orlando said:

 

I remember that, 25F recorded at OIA. I was out there a couple weeks after that and there wasn't any cold damage. They had 'Mammey' crotons and Heliconia psittacorum planted out in beds the open and no damage, these should have been melted. Even the Philodendron bipinnatifidum out in the open should have had damage. Thats always been a suspect reading.

 

I wonder if this is due to airport geography. We have a similar temperature issue with the official reading at the Melbourne International airport during cold weather events. Seems to read lower but the plants don't show the damage that would normally occur. 

[donalt]

Another note regarding that cold morning,Eric, is that the temperature at OIA dropped 7F degrees in one hour just at sunrise, then rebounded as quickly the next hour. That may account for lack of cold damage. It also supports my earlier post that OIA, due to its  flat, wet surroundings, is a cold microclimate regarding minimum temperatures.  That seems the only way to account for the lack of cold damage. I do wonder, where exactly is OIA weather station(s)? Perhaps just that particular area is in a cold pocket.

[ChrisA]

Looking at Growing Degree Information I calculated for Albuquerque for this past winter season, I can see we do not compare to those warmer cities as each month was a negative on the growing degree days: December 2016 -333.5, January 2017 -331.5, February 2017 -105.

Lowest Temp 14F on January 6, 2017

Highest Temp 75F on February 10, 2017

A fairly mild winter overall for here but cold enough to kill a 1 gallon CIDP which was covered, also damaged spear of Butia capitata. Guess I won't plant that Cocos nucifera I've been eyeing!