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Possible Florida Freeze - January

106 posts in this topic

1 hour ago, Yunder Wækraus said:

51 at 6:45 this morning. Don't think we got above 52 for a high yesterday. Not sure we ever actually dropped below 50 at any point. I hate this cola :-(

*cold

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Here's the latest. 

 
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

.EXCESSIVE COLD IMPACT...
LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO BETWEEN 35 AND 40 DEGREES
OVER MUCH OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA TONIGHT, EXCEPT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST AND IN HIGHLY URBANIZED LOCATIONS WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD
IN THE LOWER 40S. WHILE FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED, AREAS
OF FROST WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.

A FROST ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING
TUESDAY FOR ALL OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA, EXCEPT MARTIN COUNTY, THE
BARRIER ISLANDS, METRO ORLANDO AND OTHER URBANIZED LOCATIONS WHERE,
AT MOST, PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE. SENSITIVE OUTDOOR PLANTS SHOULD
BE COVERED OR BROUGHT INSIDE.
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I don't understand how the east and west coast of Florida can vary so much with each cold front. It is forecast to be 43 here tonight which is probably the 4th coldest night of the winter. Over on the east coast tonight is the coldest night. It looks like my low temp tonight and coastal Brevard County will be about the same, but on my coldest night of the year coastal Brevard County was around 15f warmer. Does anyone know why this happens?  

 

 

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2 hours ago, RedRabbit said:

I don't understand how the east and west coast of Florida can vary so much with each cold front. It is forecast to be 43 here tonight which is probably the 4th coldest night of the winter. Over on the east coast tonight is the coldest night. It looks like my low temp tonight and coastal Brevard County will be about the same, but on my coldest night of the year coastal Brevard County was around 15f warmer. Does anyone know why this happens?  

 

 

I've often wondered if it had something to do with the wind and weather system trajectory, but I think we talked about it and were able to rule out that notion.  It looks as if both Tampa (48) and Melbourne (42) will be warmer than my little slice of paradise tonight (40). Not unexpected, but it looks like Tampa will be warmer than Melbourne and Cape Canaveral as you stated.  Vero Beach is to go down into the 30s tonight!  Quite unexpected as well.  I'd be interested to hear any insights as well.

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I'm at 47 at 6am, might go down a degree more before sunrise but happy it stayed warmer than predicted. 

I think the higher temps here on the east coast are only for the barrier islands. If I were to go 7 miles west to I95, temps are currently 35-36. I believe it's a combination of the warm ocean (Gulf stream), warm river that separates the island from the mainland and high urban density of the island. 

Here's where I explained it more in depth.

 

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3 minutes ago, IHB1979 said:

I'm at 47 at 6am, might go down a degree more before sunrise but happy it stayed warmer than predicted. 

I think the higher temps here on the east coast are only for the barrier islands. If I were to go 7 miles west to I95, temps are currently 35-36. I believe it's a combination of the warm ocean (Gulf stream), warm river that separates the island from the mainland and high urban density of the island. 

Here's where I explained it more in depth.

 

It's 47 at 6:24 here in Indialantic

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Light roof-top frost at 7:15 in Satellite Beach about 9 miles north of my house 

IMG_1587.JPG

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I should add that is only 43 at 7:20 here in Satellite Beach according to my car thermometer; my car said it was 48 at 6:40 in the driveway of my house in Indialantic.

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1 hour ago, IHB1979 said:

I'm at 47 at 6am, might go down a degree more before sunrise but happy it stayed warmer than predicted. 

I think the higher temps here on the east coast are only for the barrier islands. If I were to go 7 miles west to I95, temps are currently 35-36. I believe it's a combination of the warm ocean (Gulf stream), warm river that separates the island from the mainland and high urban density of the island. 

Here's where I explained it more in depth.

 

Final update: when we left Satellite Beach at 7:30, our car thermometer read 44; when we pulled into our driveway in Indialantic at 7:40, it read 48. Does anyone know why they would be such a difference north to south over such a short distance on the same barrier island?

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I picked up different readings. When I left my house in Indian Harbour Beach, my yard weather station read 47. My pickup in driveway read 45. South Patrick Shores was 50. It was 52 on top of the Pineda Causeway. In the last 7 years, I've noticed that South Patrick Shores is historically the warmest area of the island (Cape to Sebastian Inlet) on cold nights. Maybe it's the density of this area, the width of the island and the river width is larger at this location.

The temps rose fast this morning as soon as the sun rose at roughly 6:15, but I realize your readings were only 10 minutes apart. Another consideration is that car thermometers although decent, can sometimes be influenced by their immediate surroundings which skew the readings.

I saw frost on what I would consider older home roofs in my neighborhood too. In my yard, I use my cannas and banana leafs as a frost gage and they looked fine.

Weather looks good for next 10-15 days.

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19 minutes ago, IHB1979 said:

I picked up different readings. When I left my house in Indian Harbour Beach, my yard weather station read 47. My pickup in driveway read 45. South Patrick Shores was 50. It was 52 on top of the Pineda Causeway. In the last 7 years, I've noticed that South Patrick Shores is historically the warmest area of the island (Cape to Sebastian Inlet) on cold nights. Maybe it's the density of this area, the width of the island and the river width is larger at this location.

The temps rose fast this morning as soon as the sun rose at roughly 6:15, but I realize your readings were only 10 minutes apart. Another consideration is that car thermometers although decent, can sometimes be influenced by their immediate surroundings which skew the readings.

I saw frost on what I would consider older home roofs in my neighborhood too. In my yard, I use my cannas and banana leafs as a frost gage and they looked fine.

Weather looks good for next 10-15 days.

 I can tell you that it was definitely quite a bit colder in Satellite Beach that it was in Indialantic on the basis of how cold my body felt. I take my son to Satellite Beach every morning, and I go for a 45 minute walk between  6:40 AM and 7:25 AM. I do this walk Monday through Friday every week of the school year, and this was the first morning where I couldn't feel my nose, ears, fingers,  and saw frost on the rooftops. The street I walk on is Roosevelt, which is close to the high school in Satellite Beach. I watched the car thermometer as we drove from Roosevelt down to Indialantic on A1A,  and I was able to watch the temperature go up every couple miles as we headed south. So something was depressing the temperature along Roosevelt and A1A a relative to A1A and adjacent sidestreets just a few miles south, and I would really like to know what could've caused such a difference.

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I'm not doubting you, just letting you know what my readings were. There was no wind, so maybe pockets of the coldest air were collecting and draining to the lowest spots on the island. The general topography of the island is the dune at the beach is the highest elevation and it slopes down towards the river. Maybe there are some lower elevations in that area of Roosevelt. That road also spans the entire width of the island, east to west, with little canopy over the road, so maybe that was a cold air route to the river. It's a fascinating topic, I run at night and in winter, I can usually find very large differences in temps when there is no wind. The difference is drastic when I run under canopy of trees. However, mix in some wind and the air blends together. 

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4 hours ago, IHB1979 said:

I'm not doubting you, just letting you know what my readings were. There was no wind, so maybe pockets of the coldest air were collecting and draining to the lowest spots on the island. The general topography of the island is the dune at the beach is the highest elevation and it slopes down towards the river. Maybe there are some lower elevations in that area of Roosevelt. That road also spans the entire width of the island, east to west, with little canopy over the road, so maybe that was a cold air route to the river. It's a fascinating topic, I run at night and in winter, I can usually find very large differences in temps when there is no wind. The difference is drastic when I run under canopy of trees. However, mix in some wind and the air blends together. 

I really like your explanation. Yeah, there wasn't even a breeze. Do you know of any topographical maps of our island that show enough detail to distinguish just a few feet in elevation? My neighbors have told me that we are about 13 feet above sea level, but I could imagine the number being quite a bit lower. 

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I had 43.5f at 7:30 this morning which probably equates to 41f out in the open. I checked for frost on the rooftops but surprisingly didn't see any. 

I was looking at the Wunderground stations on Merritt Island and noticed quite a bit of variation. They seemed to range from about 40-50f this morning. 

Edited by RedRabbit
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45F here in New Port Richey. I believe the influence of moisture from both coasts raises the dewpoint, keeping it warmer. As hyou go inland away from the bodies of water, the dewpoint falls due to the lack of influence from the waters, hence the dewpoint can drop like a rocket. I noticed Okeechobee airport reported near freezing, while I am sitting well  noth on the Gulf 12 degrees warmer. However, their drier air allowed them to jump with the warming of the sun while we managed only 66F due to the cooling influence of the Gulf. A lovely patch of weather is coming for February! :o

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We've almost made it to Feb 10th which is the cutoff (historically) for severe (hard) freezes in central Florida.  After the 20th, the freeze possibilities almost totally disappear. There hasn't been a Feb freeze in Tampa since 1996.  The 21 year stretch is unprecedented since record keeping began in 1894.   Don't tell me urbanization hasn't changed the microclimate here.

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47 this morning in Indian Harbour Beach. As gsytch said, February looks to be very nice. 

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15 hours ago, SubTropicRay said:

We've almost made it to Feb 10th which is the cutoff (historically) for severe (hard) freezes in central Florida.  After the 20th, the freeze possibilities almost totally disappear. There hasn't been a Feb freeze in Tampa since 1996.  The 21 year stretch is unprecedented since record keeping began in 1894.   Don't tell me urbanization hasn't changed the microclimate here.

Maybe time to plant that Beccariophoenix alfredii? 

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9 hours ago, RedRabbit said:

Maybe time to plant that Beccariophoenix alfredii? 

Nah.  Warmer or not we'll still see the infrequent 24-25F in January which will wipe it out.  Besides, I'm out of room :D 

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just takes one to screw up  the stats

 

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6 hours ago, edbrown_III said:

just takes one to screw up  the stats

 

..and the palms.

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On 1/9/2017, 6:12:10, AnTonY said:

 

True about record lows in CA vs FL; indeed, Florida can get hit pretty hard. However, I was referring to it in relation to the rest of the South; there are plenty of times the peninsula (and far north on it too) is basking in 80-90F heat, while the rest of the South is in the deep freezer; basically, no penetration whatsoever. The way the differentials are suggest something greater than just simple water-moderation, probably a Caribbean Ridge of sorts.

Meanwhile, on the other side of the Gulf, the cold fronts just drive right down to even Tampico, with no stop; I just don't know what atmospheric dynamics prevent a Caribbean Ridge type-feature from jutting into Southern Mexico, allowing that place, and Texas, to be walled of from cold, at least for a turn.

Having water on both sides makes the difference.  Northern Florida is just as subject to cold as the rest of the deep south, however it tends to be drier due to being further east. 

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I'm close to Vero Beach airport, which had a surprise 34 in that cold snap.  The only damage was to leaves of a big bromeliad, Aechmea blanchetiana--leaf bleaching and some dead spots.    

Palms here and in Fort Pierce are growing happily.  Looks like time to fertilize.

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On 2/16/2017, 11:37:16, Jimbean said:

Having water on both sides makes the difference.  Northern Florida is just as subject to cold as the rest of the deep south, however it tends to be drier due to being further east. 

At the time I made the comment (December), it seemed as if Florida was just its own separate world away from sheer cold that struck the rest of the South, as if the cold never happened. I've seen the cold-fronts basically stop right at the FL/GA border, so south GA is cold, while areas in Florida just across are warm. If it were just simple water moderation, then the cold fronts would have still come through, just with the temp changes "muted." 

Turns out it was just simple teleconnections (- vs + PNA). It seems that with +PNA, Florida/East Coast is the focus for cold air, rather than with areas further west like Texas; vice versa with -PNA.

Yes, winter rainfall peaks in the middle Gulf area (from Louisiana east to FL Panhandle), while lower totals occur at the eastern areas (like northeastern FL), and western areas (coastal Texas). Winter rainfall totals in Houston are similar to Jacksonville's, just that Houston has an extra inch in December. Lots of rain-systems in winter can come off the Eastern Pacific, so that energy can be long gone by the time it reaches Northeastern FL.

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Worst winter ever in S. Florida. Still hoping for some cool air. As to a frost, "so I still have a chance"!

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