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Bearish.....


trioderob

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In the past when rates have gone up the market has slowly grinded higher. That's my base scenario, but as you know with the markets anything can happen.

At this point though, what reason does the Fed have for not raising? The past couple labor reports were stellar. We're basically at full employment now. Brexit happened and the world didn't end. Europe is getting by for now at least. The US should start to see more inflation and the Fed doesn't want it to get out of control. Raising a little makes a lot of sense.

One thing to keep a close eye on is China. If the dollar rises then the yuan rises by proxy and China isn't all that strong right now.

Also, it will be very interesting to see what happens with long term US treasuries. Yields may not go up with the target fed funds rate and if that's the case the Fed has a big problem on their hands.  

Westchase | 9b 10a  ◆  Nokomis | 10a  ◆  St. Petersburg | 10a 10b 

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you are incorrect as the chart below shows:

(I assume you are very bullish now ?)

main-qimg-a026098ac79ecd08304fc94c3de6aa

Edited by trioderob
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9 minutes ago, trioderob said:

you are incorrect as the chart below shows:

(I assume you are very bullish now ?)

main-qimg-a026098ac79ecd08304fc94c3de6aa

Actually that chart proves I'm correct. You're just focusing at the end of the hiking cycle, this is just the second one. Look at the chart, when the fed funds rate starts going higher what happens to the market? 

And you assume I'm very bullish? I said my base scenario is a slow grind higher, that's not very bullish. I'd say I'm slightly to moderately bullish. There's just not a whole lot to be bearish about right now. 

Westchase | 9b 10a  ◆  Nokomis | 10a  ◆  St. Petersburg | 10a 10b 

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"Actually that chart proves I'm correct. "

could you point out the definitive correlation you are seeing ?

 

(Dean are you still out there ????)

Edited by trioderob
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6 minutes ago, trioderob said:

"Actually that chart proves I'm correct. "

could you point out the definitive correlation you are seeing ?

 

(Dean are you still out there ????)

Sorry, don't really have the time to explain it all.

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Westchase | 9b 10a  ◆  Nokomis | 10a  ◆  St. Petersburg | 10a 10b 

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Deleted my comment

 

Kim Cyr

Between the beach and the bays, Point Loma, San Diego, California USA
and on a 300 year-old lava flow, Pahoa, Hawaii, 1/4 mile from the 2018 flow
All characters  in this work are fictitious. Any resemblance to real persons, living or dead, is purely coincidental.

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6 hours ago, Kim said:

Deleted my comment

 

Tell me at the meeting? :lol:

Let's keep our forum fun and friendly.

Any data in this post is provided 'as is' and in no event shall I be liable for any damages, including, without limitation, damages resulting from accuracy or lack thereof, insult, or lost profits or revenue, claims by third parties or for other similar costs, or any special, incidental, or consequential damages arising out of my opinion or the use of this data. The accuracy or reliability of the data is not guaranteed or warranted in any way and I disclaim liability of any kind whatsoever, including, without limitation, liability for quality, performance, merchantability and fitness for a particular purpose arising out of the use, or inability to use my data. Other terms may apply.

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now the market will "whip-saw"

those who think it will grind higher with good fundimantal news will be tricked into buying - just to see a severe downturn

those who are scared to death about the interest rates will get burned with  few rallies to make them doubt their postion

Edited by trioderob
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Whoa, what's not being said appears more interesting than what is!

Let's keep our forum fun and friendly.

Any data in this post is provided 'as is' and in no event shall I be liable for any damages, including, without limitation, damages resulting from accuracy or lack thereof, insult, or lost profits or revenue, claims by third parties or for other similar costs, or any special, incidental, or consequential damages arising out of my opinion or the use of this data. The accuracy or reliability of the data is not guaranteed or warranted in any way and I disclaim liability of any kind whatsoever, including, without limitation, liability for quality, performance, merchantability and fitness for a particular purpose arising out of the use, or inability to use my data. Other terms may apply.

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