Possible TS/Hurricane - Hermine

[Palmaceae]

Everyone in Florida, especially South Florida and the Gulf Coast needs to watch the forecasts for this coming Sunday through early next week as there is a Tropical wave in the Eastern Caribbean that could cause us some issues.

This is that the European models show this morning, a TS or Cat 1 hurricane over South Florida late this weekend, then headed to Texas/Louisiana as a possible Cat 3.  This is only one model and the others show some differences such as the GFS shows it as a wave over Florida, so I pray that this does not become a storm and especially over Louisiana as they certainly do not need anymore rain.  The European model is usually the more accurate model but we are still a few days out and a lot can change.

 

[Palmaceae]

Now the newest run shows a TS/Cat1 going up the West Coast of Florida.  It keeps changing so stay tuned for tomorrow as it will likely change again.

 

[Palmarum]

Ugh.

[RedRabbit]

Where do you get these images? I always use spaghettimodels.com which has all sorts of models tracked, but it is beginning to seem like the Euro is the only one that matters.

[Palmaceae]

7 hours ago, RedRabbit said:

Where do you get these images? I always use spaghettimodels.com which has all sorts of models tracked, but it is beginning to seem like the Euro is the only one that matters.

They have most of the models on the below site, has not changed much from yesterday, right now is having a hard time getting organized with the mountains of Hispaniola.  It is just a big mess out there with no real defined center, hence the reason the models are having such a hard time with this.

I would not say the Euro model is the only one that matters, you just have to take them all into account as we never know precisely where it is going or even if it will turn into anything other then a breezy rain maker which I am hoping for. 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

[RedRabbit]

6 minutes ago, Palmaceae said:

They have most of the models on the below site, has not changed much from yesterday, right now is having a hard time getting organized with the mountains of Hispaniola.  It is just a big mess out there with no real defined center, hence the reason the models are having such a hard time with this.

I would not say the Euro model is the only one that matters, you just have to take them all into account as we never know precisely where it is going or even if it will turn into anything other then a breezy rain maker which I am hoping for. 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

Thanks!

[Palmaceae]

7 minutes ago, RedRabbit said:

Thanks!

You are welcome, I am sure in the next day or so we will start to hear about watches in our area.  I am sure Monroe county is looking at this very closely as I believe it takes 48 hours to evacuate the Keys.  But again this may turn out to be nothing. Right now most models show the same relative path, what they disagree on is the intensity.

[Palmaceae]

[Palmaceae]

The NHC just dropped the percentage 10%, to 40%-70%, so that is good news. Plus the European model is now pretty much the same as the GFS, just a weak wave coming through extreme South Florida up the West Coast of Florida.  But it will still be a rain maker and gusty winds.

 

[Palmaceae]

Even though this may not become a TS or worse we certainly will get some rain,

 

[Palmaceae]

Still interesting, looks like it will move over the Florida Straits so the Keys and South Florida will get some wind and rain, bit probably not much more than that. What it does in the Gulf they just don't know. 

At least here in South Florida it will be a bit "cooler" with the clouds and rain, as it is brutal out there.

[gsytch]

Bring it on! We need the rain in my area. The past few weeks we have missed out on a lot of the good rains, receiving mostly lighter rains or quick storms. This scenario is a best possible for some beneficial rainfall - and no winds to speak of! 

[Palmaceae]

The models are starting to evolve a bit and it looks like the big bend area in Florida just may see a TS. I would be watching this storm if I was in Tampa and parts north. There is another wave coming off Africa now that might affect us late next week. It looks like a busy hurricane season this year.

 

 

[Palmarum]

The Blob approaches...

 

[Matthew92]

[Matthew92]

It's here

[RedRabbit]

Sweet, hopefully it will swing back around and come to Tampa.  

[Matthew92]

Official forecast has it becoming nothing stronger than a TS for now.

[Alicehunter2000]

To trim ?... or not to trim? ..... Washingtonia shag ..... that is the question .... going to be surf this week for sure

[palmsOrl]

I hope it does not get hung up on Cuba and dissipate.  This could be a good way to make up for the dry summer.  Some of the models have been consistently depicting a Cape Verde long track storm moving across the Atlantic in the next two weeks.  Though it is too early to tell, these usually curve out to sea well before the US East Coast.

[IHB1979]

Hopefully it's only a week of measurable rainfall.

[Alicehunter2000]

Looks like Florida armpit going to get some rain and wind.

[Matthew92]

I'm not resting yet: latest runs of a couple of the main computer models show a FL Panhandle strike as a possible Cat. 1.

UKMET

CMC

[SubTropicRay]

On ‎8‎/‎28‎/‎2016‎ ‎5‎:‎24‎:‎38‎, RedRabbit said:

Sweet, hopefully it will swing back around and come to Tampa.  

The Bay is protected by the Manasota Indian culture.   For the most part, hurricane landfall is not physically possible here .

[Palmaceae]

Hurricane watches are up from the Northern part of the Tampa Bay Area north to the panhandle. Hopefully it will not strengthen and just stay a rain maker.

[RedRabbit]

7 hours ago, SubTropicRay said:

The Bay is protected by the Manasota Indian culture.   For the most part, hurricane landfall is not physically possible here .

I certainly hope we don't ever get a major hurricane in Tampa. It is a little scary to think of what could potentially happen to the Interbay Peninsula.  

3 hours ago, Palmaceae said:

Hurricane watches are up from the Northern part of the Tampa Bay Area north to the panhandle. Hopefully it will not strengthen and just stay a rain maker.

It is looking like it will be a strong tropical storm, but a few models are calling for a Cat 1:

 

[SubTropicRay]

10 hours ago, RedRabbit said:

I certainly hope we don't ever get a major hurricane in Tampa. It is a little scary to think of what could potentially happen to the Interbay Peninsula.  

Records indicate only immediate coastal areas flooded in 1921.  I'm not too worried.

[Palmaceae]

TS Hermine is moving a bit further north, looks like Apalachicola may see landfall.

[gsytch]

The storm has not even hit yet and we have had too much rainfall. Well over 3: has fallen today, and it is still raining - and the radar is full of yellows and oranges. Looks like a long, wet ride.

[SubTropicRay]

I'm thankful for every drop.  In our land, drought is never far away as you well know.  Besides, La Nina is looming with it's guaranteed 30 inches of yearly rain  

[cm05]

I'm hoping for a deluge when it comes to my neck of the woods this weekend, this drought is ridiculous, only half an inch of rain last month. I'm concerned about potential flooding and damaging winds, however.

[Palmaceae]

I pray that everyone in that area stays safe, 80+mph winds and about to make landfall is a few hours between Aligator Point and Apalachicola. I will be driving through South Georgia tomorrow afternoon (coming home from vacation in the Smokies), so hopefully no bad driving conditions.

[Alicehunter2000]

Bryant is in the cross hairs over there. Hope he has no damage.....meanwhile over here on the edge of the storm......

[Palmaceae]

I hope everyone is ok. I drove through Georgia and Florida back home today to the Cape and did not see any damage until we hit the Florida border. A lot of downed trees and debris on I-75. I saw damaged trees all the way down to the Cape.

And another one has formed in the Atlantic, invest 92L and some models are showing a similar track as Hermine. That storm is a little more than a week ahead if it even does form. The models for Hermine were actually pretty good, so we need to watch this next one.

[gsytch]

We got blasted overnight with sever squalls and deluges, but even today, after Hermine left, we were the lucky ones under the tail that trained. Additional 3" just since 9am. I have one of those Xmas tubs that you store stuff in, outside. It was empty Tuesday. Today it spills over. Completely out in the open. That is like what, 14" of rain? Or more? 

[PalmTreeDude]

One of the things that stink about Florida and Hawaii, they are at risk of hurricanes and other tropical storms!  

Edited September 3, 2016 by PalmTreeDude
Typo

[gsytch]

OMG it just kept raining, thundering and pouring yesterday. Guess what it is doing now? Yep, more deluges and thunder. Roads are flooded, areas are increasingly becoming impassable. I believe I have surpassed 16" of rain since Wed evening and it is pouring with the radar lit up. Feast or Famine. Very little the past few weeks in rainfall, then a season's worth in 4 days....

[RedRabbit]

More rain for me today too... I have no idea how much it has rained at this point, I think my 6" rain guage was full like 3 days ago. 

[cm05]

Looks like a (nearly) complete miss for me. We're in dire need of rain, I would've taken anything.

[Dave-Vero]

Buxton (Cape Hatteras) suffered flooding, some damage to homes, vehicles due to flooding from the sound.