the stock market of the United States.......

[trioderob]

alot of technical damage going on this week ......

 

world wide liquidity is drying up and forced selling is taking place

 

you guys bullish or bearish ?

[Pando]

Bearish, for now. Reminicient of late 2000, and late 2007, looks like lower highs and lower lows. Sold most of my longs last July/Aug when the uptrends started breaking, few got stopped out. I'm holding a few positions that have done well so far, but have stops on them anyway.

[enigma99]

Trying to keep my money in bonds and real estate for now. Stocks are long overdue for a correction I think

[trioderob]

Dean-

you bullish or bearish ???????

 

[trioderob]

here is the thing to ask yourself

is this a short term correction  -or the start of a rare inflection point leading to a long term bear market.

what will you do if the market just trickles down for a year ?????

[Dypsisdean]

On 1/15/2016, 12:16:10, trioderob said:

Dean-

you bullish or bearish ???????

 

I don't know. I think it is too late to sell. But I don't think I would be buying, even if I had any "ammo."

I heard Mark Cuban say, "If you don't know what to do, then don't do anything." And that makes sense to me right here.

[trioderob]

Dean-

its never too late to sell - that's rule #1

[Turtile]

I think this might be an extension of what happened in the summer.  With this quick downward movement, any bad news can spark a major sell off.  I wonder if we will be seeing 11-13,000 in a few months...

I think that when it does recover, it will be pretty quick since there will be a good amount of cash sitting around.

[trioderob]

Kim-

what say ye ?

[trioderob]

APPLE DOWN HUGE - WILL IT TANK ALL THE MARKETS ????

[trioderob]

“The market can remain irrational -  longer than you can remain solvent.”

 - Shilling

Edited January 28, 2016 by trioderob

[John Case]

Google getting hammered...IBM up....everything is spinning out of control! :)

[trioderob]

thing to remember is that this is not a "oil " crash

in other words the market is not crashing based totally on oil

its a factor  - but far from the main cause

what we have here is a liquidity problem - a banking problem world wide

when the fed indicated that they were raising rates it created a domino effect to the other countries who were making dollar based loans.

in other words the cost of getting money to lend (dollars - not their domestic money ) skyrocketed

i am sure someone will call bs on me and i will have to turn around and prove it

 

Edited January 28, 2016 by trioderob

[RedRabbit]

On January 27, 2016 at 7:20:21 PM, trioderob said:

“The market can remain irrational -  longer than you can remain solvent.”

 - Shilling

Probably my favorite market related quote, but John Maynard Keynes said it.

[trioderob]

greek banks went absolutely into the abyss today

here is where you "buy and hold" types really get to test your internal fortitude.

Kim-

what are you telling your customers - in other words do you feel this is a fantastic buying opportunity ???????

[trioderob]

Is everyone having fun ?

what are you going to do if this is a year long bear market that sucks another 20% of your savings ....do you have the belly for it.?

other the other hand we may be near a trade-able bottom as some technology stocks have been decimated. its alwasys darkest just before the dawn......

some of my indicators are showing that we are one final "wash-out" from a bottom.

the above statements are for entertainment purposes only.

always seek the advice of a licensed financial advisor before making a real trade

Edited February 9, 2016 by trioderob

[RedRabbit]

I haven't been concerned until this week. The US is economy solid. It is very possible we'll have a bear market, but I don't expect the US to have a recession and bear markets that don't coincide with recessions are fairly rare... Europe is another story entirely, we're seeing some scary signs out of Europe right now. As you mentioned, Greek banks have had a dismal week but we've also seen peripheral-core spreads widen. To make matters worse, there are some rumors going around about Deutsche Bank. 

[trioderob]

check this out:

maybe not as solid as it appears ????

https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/survey/empire/empire2016/2016_01report.pdf?la=en

 

"Business Conditions at Their Worst since the Great Recession Business activity declined for New York manufacturing firms more sharply than at any time since the 2007-09 recession, according to the January 2016 survey. The general business conditions index remained below zero for a sixth consecutive month, dropping thirteen points to -19.4, its lowest level since early 2009. The new orders index plunged seventeen points to -23.5, indicating a substantial decline in orders "

Edited February 10, 2016 by trioderob

[RedRabbit]

3 hours ago, trioderob said:

check this out:

maybe not as solid as it appears ????

https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/survey/empire/empire2016/2016_01report.pdf?la=en

 

"Business Conditions at Their Worst since the Great Recession Business activity declined for New York manufacturing firms more sharply than at any time since the 2007-09 recession, according to the January 2016 survey. The general business conditions index remained below zero for a sixth consecutive month, dropping thirteen points to -19.4, its lowest level since early 2009. The new orders index plunged seventeen points to -23.5, indicating a substantial decline in orders "

If your focus is solely on manufacturing then no, but that only accounts for 12% of the US economy.

[trioderob]

so Yellen just stated she wont change course on rates - the next 3 days are the tell on this market

[trioderob]

rally failed today - markets went negative again

next 2 days will be fun

[trioderob]

[trioderob]

if we can get to "panic" thats great time to buy back in.

thats when folks no longer use logic and emotion takes over.

(if prices keep eroding there WILL be panic )

 

"its never too late to sell"-

Trioderob 

 

I am outta here - you folks have fun

Edited February 11, 2016 by trioderob

[trioderob]

looks like oil  has bottomed ......

[Turtile]

51 minutes ago, trioderob said:

looks like oil  has bottomed ......

I doubt it has bottomed.  The supply is still there and demand is not increasing yet.

[trioderob]

you forgot one thing - if the producers come to an agreement to cut production it can go up anyway.

just what is happening now and it up 6% in a few hours....................clunk

[Turtile]

28 minutes ago, trioderob said:

you forgot one thing - if the producers come to an agreement to cut production it can go up anyway.

just what is happening now and it up 6% in a few hours....................clunk

We've had multiple rumors but nothing has come of them.  It will be temporary.  I don't think any of the countries will come to an agreement in worry that others will break it.  They need all the money they can get now.  I also think Saudi Arabia's goal of crushing competitors hasn't had enough time to work.  In addition, they can sell a lot of gold.  If the price goes up a lot due to market weakness, they can go by a lot further.

[trioderob]

_{lest see if you are right ...maybe so...........snort}

[trioderob]

OIL up 11 %

lets see if the holds - read this

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-12/the-oil-industry-got-together-and-agreed-things-may-never-get-better

[Turtile]

On 2/12/2016, 12:29:06, trioderob said:

OIL up 11 %

lets see if the holds - read this

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-12/the-oil-industry-got-together-and-agreed-things-may-never-get-better

It looks like the talks were real but only a freeze contingent on everyone else freezing output.  And given Iran just started shipping oil, I don't think even a freeze is going to help much. Oil is on its way back down...

[trioderob]

oil up again - this time 6%

[Turtile]

11 hours ago, trioderob said:

oil up again - this time 6%

I wonder if this is just short covering.  I also noticed other commodities such as potash went up a lot with the bad news.

[trioderob]

On ‎2‎/‎16‎/‎2016‎ ‎7‎:‎51‎:‎59‎, Turtile said:

It looks like the talks were real but only a freeze contingent on everyone else freezing output.  And given Iran just started shipping oil, I don't think even a freeze is going to help much. Oil is on its way back down...

very bad call -  oil jumped 30%

[trioderob]

market closed at 1999.99

anyone have a tidbit of wisdom ???????