the Stock market..........

[trioderob]

we should see volatility rise here.

energy prices crashing with oil down 3%

emerging markets crashing on lower commodity prices and fed pulling back the punch bowl.

oil should fine a bottom soon and Maybelle another run to new highs.

time to stay on your toes

[trioderob]

"time to stay on your toes"

-Trioderob

[Pando]

There are a lot of very smart people working in the financial industry whose entire life careers are solely based on separating you from your money.

[trioderob]

ok -

oil did not find a bottom yet and the smartest traders around the world are making their bets.

hedge funds are shorting the %^&* out of oil right now

at some point soon we will see one of Deans rare long term "inflection points" in Oil

[Moose]

Energy

Crude Oil (WTI)57.77-2.18 (-3.64%)15:43

[Dypsisdean]

at some point soon we will see one of Deans rare long term "inflection points" in Oil

Yep - this is one of those rare "blood in the street" moments. There is a long term trade in here somewhere. But where - that is the question? It took me three tries to get a position in Apple near the low.

Oil, and how to play it, will be more difficult. I may put a buy order in a few bucks lower for Monday, hoping to get a good price, before at least what should be some kind of short term relief rally soon. But always with a tight stop. When everyone is talking about lower oil.....

And one geo-political crisis with Russia, Iran, or other Middle-East country could spike the price.

[Kim]

I heard a whisper number of 47.50. All the usual disclaimers apply.

[John Case]

shorted the QQQ this morning.......

[trioderob]

at some point soon we will see one of Deans rare long term "inflection points" in Oil

Yep - this is one of those rare "blood in the street" moments. There is a long term trade in here somewhere. But where - that is the question? It took me three tries to get a position in Apple near the low.

Oil, and how to play it, will be more difficult. I may put a buy order in a few bucks lower for Monday, hoping to get a good price, before at least what should be some kind of short term relief rally soon. But always with a tight stop. When everyone is talking about lower oil.....

And one geo-political crisis with Russia, Iran, or other Middle-East country could spike the price.

Dean-

did you go all in on Oil at the start of the day ?

[trioderob]

I heard a whisper number of 47.50. All the usual disclaimers apply.

Kim-

from your lips to God.

there are traders round the world trying to figure this out and you on the" palm forum" have the magic # ?

Edited December 15, 2014 by trioderob

[Dypsisdean]

at some point soon we will see one of Deans rare long term "inflection points" in Oil

Yep - this is one of those rare "blood in the street" moments. There is a long term trade in here somewhere. But where - that is the question? It took me three tries to get a position in Apple near the low.

Oil, and how to play it, will be more difficult. I may put a buy order in a few bucks lower for Monday, hoping to get a good price, before at least what should be some kind of short term relief rally soon. But always with a tight stop. When everyone is talking about lower oil.....

And one geo-political crisis with Russia, Iran, or other Middle-East country could spike the price.

Dean-

did you go all in on Oil at the start of the day ?

Not yet - I'm seriously considering placing some orders in USO that would have me averaging in starting at what would correspond to about $53/ barrel, then $51, then $49 - for a 6-12 month trade - knowing that I will never cherry pick the bottom. To me that seems like a good way to play this.

[trioderob]

sounds smart to me

[Kim]

I heard a whisper number of 47.50. All the usual disclaimers apply.

Kim-

from your lips to God.

there are traders round the world trying to figure this out and you on the" palm forum" have the magic # ?

Sorry, can't reveal my sources.

[John Case]

still short the QQQ.......the trend is your friend.....

Oil has not changed direction, unless you are an incremental investor, buying oil right now seems a bit like someone who has picked the bottom.....just general safety says wait.....

[trioderob]

I heard a whisper number of 47.50. All the usual disclaimers apply.

Kim-

from your lips to God.

there are traders round the world trying to figure this out and you on the" palm forum" have the magic # ?

Sorry, can't reveal my sources.

your sources don't have a "magic number" - that's hogwash

here is one for you - will the SPX500 be higher or lower one month from today - whats the "whisper" call ?

Edited December 17, 2014 by trioderob

[Kim]

I heard a whisper number of 47.50. All the usual disclaimers apply.

Kim-

from your lips to God.

there are traders round the world trying to figure this out and you on the" palm forum" have the magic # ?

Sorry, can't reveal my sources.

your sources don't have a "magic number" - that's hogwash

here is one for you - will the SPX500 be higher or lower one month from today - whats the "whisper" call ?

I'm sorry. That's confidential.

[trioderob]

no its not.

just because you work for a brokerage firm does mean you have any "magic" numbers.

you may have computers which have proprietary algorithms and smart economic experts working there - but unfortunately they can be and are often incorrect.

I have read recently that private investors are outdoing many of the big firms.

on the other hand if you know the King of Saudi Arabia or the President of OPEC .................................

Edited December 17, 2014 by trioderob

[Kim]

I never used, nor implied, the word "magic".

[Moose]

I never used, nor implied, the word "magic".

My observations were that Kim proposed a potential market trading benchmark on oil futures. Its heading in that direction, that is all.

Rob - your somewhat aggressive and confrontational personality may shut down her future contributions.

Energy

Crude Oil (WTI)55.86-0.07 (-0.13%)17:12

Crude Oil (Brent)60.65+0.64 (+1.07%)17:11

[Dypsisdean]

And I wouldn't hesitate to suggest that Kim has spent more time and has more "on-hands" experience with the proven ways to profit by investing in stocks than any one else on this Forum.

[Moose]

Oil bumped up slightly early but looks like its downward trend continues ...

Energy

Crude Oil (WTI)54.08-2.39 (-4.23%)14:28

Crude Oil (Brent)59.21-1.97 (-3.22%)14:25

[trioderob]

I think it was me who posted this just before it happened and started a thread about it - no ?

Posted 08 December 2014 - 12:49 PM

"we should see volatility rise here."

Edited December 18, 2014 by trioderob

[Dypsisdean]

I think it was me who posted this just before it happened and started a thread about it - no ?

Posted 08 December 2014 - 12:49 PM

"we should see volatility rise here."

Did it make you any money?

[Moose]

I think it was me who posted this just before it happened and started a thread about it - no ?

Posted 08 December 2014 - 12:49 PM

"we should see volatility rise here."

Are you referring to oil?

[Bags]

at some point soon we will see one of Deans rare long term "inflection points" in Oil

Yep - this is one of those rare "blood in the street" moments. There is a long term trade in here somewhere. But where - that is the question? It took me three tries to get a position in Apple near the low.

Oil, and how to play it, will be more difficult. I may put a buy order in a few bucks lower for Monday, hoping to get a good price, before at least what should be some kind of short term relief rally soon. But always with a tight stop. When everyone is talking about lower oil.....

And one geo-political crisis with Russia, Iran, or other Middle-East country could spike the price.

Dean-

did you go all in on Oil at the start of the day ?

Not yet - I'm seriously considering placing some orders in USO that would have me averaging in starting at what would correspond to about $53/ barrel, then $51, then $49 - for a 6-12 month trade - knowing that I will never cherry pick the bottom. To me that seems like a good way to play this.

I am looking to get in on the oil crash too, but how best to play it? From what i can gather it looks like USO does a poor job corresponding to the price of oil and is more based on speculation than actual price. After 08 oil rebounded but USO lagged way behind. Am I wrong? what is the best way to buy the actual price of oil? I am planning on adding Vanguard Energy ETF VDE in the next few weeks and holding for a long time or forever. It pays a 2.4% dividend that will help in waiting out the bottom.

[Dypsisdean]

Aaron - good observation - I have noticed the same thing. I did some "trading" in Nat Gas and used UNG, and the same thing occured with that ETF.

So, I wish there was a better vehicle. There appear to be many oil related ETFs, but so many are very thinly traded - which I don't like.

Let me know if you come up with anything.

[Bags]

I am getting a better understanding of oil hopefully Kim, Dean or anyone else can jump in and correct me or add.

It looks like when buying an ETF like USO you are not buying oil but futures contracts on oil. How well your investment does does not necessarily depend on the price of oil but what people are speculating the price will be in a few months. One of the problem with buying futures is the contracts also carry large fees often greater than 10%. The contract fees are something you wouldn't see with an ETF and fees are always a huge drag on investments.

If all the above is true it looks like investing in oil is a bit sketchy and buying the oil companies is a safer bet. If you could buy a barrel of oil this would make me more comfortable. Anyone?

[Bags]

Anyone buy oil? I believe we hit the 47.50 Kim predicted. I have been buying VDE with my last purchase on mondays big down day. I will buy more if oil hits $40 a barrel.

[Moose]

I heard a whisper number of 47.50. All the usual disclaimers apply.

Kim-

from your lips to God.

there are traders round the world trying to figure this out and you on the" palm forum" have the magic # ?

Rob - time to man up and tell Kim you are sorry

[trioderob]

did I miss something ?

http://www.dailyfx.com/crude-oil

Edited January 8, 2015 by trioderob

[Moose]

did I miss something ?

http://www.dailyfx.com/crude-oil

The WTI dipped to 47.93 at one point, .43 off the mark. Technically the benchmark number has not happened yet but it will with OPEC doing their Mexican Standoff seeing who will blink first. The 47.50 mark will happen and will likely drop further with the supply still remaining high. I suspect you will not admit your comments to Kim were off base when it eventually happens.

[Dypsisdean]

My better half just made her first trade ever yesterday - buying a risky highly leveraged ETF long oil. UWTI

She'll be crying if it goes lower, or think she's a genuius if it turns around here. I can't win either way, but I may have to join her long oil here soon.

[Moose]

There are more then a few experts that believe oil will drop to $40.00 a barrel. At that price the US producers would most likely cease production and the heavy supply will evaporate. I don't have any money invested in this - definitely stay away from futures. It will definitely go up again, just don't believe we have seen the bottom yet.

[trioderob]

wait a moment.

if it passes by her # on the way down does that mean she nailed it ?

even a broken clock is right twice a day

if it hits that number and bounces - so in other words its the bottom then of course she nailed it.

which then begs the question was it it pure luck or can she predict the exact future ?

if she can tell the future- then I will be on my knees begging her to tell me what this will do over the next 6 month

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=EEM

Edited January 9, 2015 by trioderob

[Dypsisdean]

All Kim did was pass along a "whisper number" she heard - nothing more, nothing less. It is not her number.

The truth is that no one "knows" where oil will eventually bottom, or when - not even the "experts."

[Ken Johnson]

Low oil prices allow me to drive around looking for palm bargains....

[Moose]

wait a moment.

if it passes by her # on the way down does that mean she nailed it ?

even a broken clock is right twice a day

if it hits that number and bounces - so in other words its the bottom then of course she nailed it.

which then begs the question was it it pure luck or can she predict the exact future ?

if she can tell the future- then I will be on my knees begging her to tell me what this will do over the next 6 month

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=EEM

Energy

Crude Oil (WTI)47.74-1.05 (-2.15%)13:17

Crude Oil (Brent)49.51-1.45 (-2.85%)13:17

[trioderob]

http://data.cnbc.com/quotes/%40CL.1/tab/2

yes Moose - it passed by that magic number.

is the down trend - now up ?

and if someone has a strong feeling that it must go down to 40 i ask this simple question:

Did you know oil was going to crash before it happened months ago - and if you could not predict the crash, what makes you think you can predict the recovery or how low it will ultimately go ????

Edited January 10, 2015 by trioderob

[Bags]

Rob you are stating the obvious. I don't think anyone is representing any predictions as fact. More important is whether or not you had the stones to try and make some money off oil….or are you going to just Monday morning quarterback the situation for us.

[Dypsisdean]

Rob you are stating the obvious. I don't think anyone is representing any predictions as fact. More important is whether or not you had the stones to try and make some money off oil….or are you going to just Monday morning quarterback the situation for us.

As Aaron said, and what they say on the sports talk shows - "Scoreboard Baby." As in --- Nothing else matters.