Dean- you still bullish ?

[trioderob]

Dean-

you still bullish on the general US stock market ????

[Dypsisdean]

Rob - that is such an open ended question as to be useless.

If you are asking do I think the market will be higher tomorrow - I don't know.

If you are asking do I think the market will be higher next week - I don't know.

If you are asking do I think the market will be higher next month - I don't know.

If you are asking do I think the market will be higher at year's end - I don't know.

If you are asking do I think the market will be higher from today's close a year from now - I say yes (especially if you include dividends).

If you are asking do I think AAPL will be much higher than where I bought it after Q1 earnings next year - I say yes.

In other words, I'm sticking with my positions.

[trioderob]

so given enough time the market will ultimately be priced at a level higher than it is today.

history is on your side with that one.................

what if someone wanted to "short" the market or Apple - any good opportunities ????

Edited October 1, 2014 by trioderob

[Dypsisdean]

Maybe

There could be a bond short right here. But you may be too late if you didn't get in at the close today. But that's "day" trading, something I can't do. I'll leave that to you.

[trioderob]

going long the rut 2000 might be something to consider too

[trioderob]

YEAAA HAAAA !

[trioderob]

ok so now we have an interesting cross roads.

profits being long need to be taken quickly in this market.

the indicators which register sentiment are at unprecedented fear levels.

some of my charts are showing that about 90% or more are bearish right now.

there has now been major technical damage. to the market. this is mostly attributed to new evidence which shows that

Europe is entering another recession.

here is where crashes can occur but also there will be a lot of money to be made on the long side once this flushes out.

last crash 6 years ago the market lost 2/3 of its value - the point being that these things can run awhile.

there will be POMO fed purchases coming this week but the trend is now down until proven otherwise.

earnings is coming this week and that will be a tell - any bad reaction to good earnings AND GUIDANCE should be taken seriously.

lets see if one of Deans rare "INFLECTION POINTS " to the general US equities markets is here.

Edited October 13, 2014 by trioderob

[trioderob]

http://www.oil-price.net/

Edited October 14, 2014 by trioderob

[John Case]

Still time to short bonds but it may not be a good idea,.......Stanley Fischer thinks he want to keep bond rates low until 2016....

[trioderob]

anyone who shorted bonds got decimated .

the 10 year is down 8% today

Edited October 15, 2014 by trioderob

[trioderob]

ok now we are seeing PANIC

market is now trading on human emotion - not logic

here is where fortunes are won or lost

what has happened is that the market is like a boxer.

he can take blows - but an accumulation to the body and he drops to one knee

Ebola - recession fears- Ukraine - fed stimuli ending -

all have added to a be like a shot to the "short ribs"

Edited October 15, 2014 by trioderob

[trioderob]

market continues to deteriorate ...........

[trioderob]

fear vs greed chart at extreme fear

(people are basically scared s.....less)

http://money.cnn.com/data/fear-and-greed/

Edited October 15, 2014 by trioderob

[trioderob]

now the "dip" buyers rush in - but this still a "falling knife" from a technical standpoint

[trioderob]

wow -

what a day

now its all about this:

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=GOLD+Interactive#symbol=GOLD;range=1d

[trioderob]

Netflix down 25 % after hours......................blunk

Edited October 15, 2014 by trioderob

[Dypsisdean]

Well, a wiff of panic today, but was it enough to set up a sustained rally?

[trioderob]

what do you think ?

[Dypsisdean]

I think short term we've seen the lows. But I would like to see a test and some more fear in the near future - at which point I would try a trade to the long side. This chart showing "fear" (VIX) spiking at lows is something I watch.

[trioderob]

what positives do you see for the market ?

Europe turning around and doing well before xmas ?

Ebola going away ?

Fed starting new stimuli ?

isis stopped ?

russian sanctions removed turning the German Economy around ?

What positives do you see coming very soon ?

Edited October 15, 2014 by trioderob

[Dypsisdean]

Where does all the money go that is leaving the European markets and China?

[trioderob]

I am not sure but this might answer the question

http://www.ft.com/indepth/silk-road-redux

[John Case]

All the money went to fixed income instruments.....a very big market and yest yields got killed...

[trioderob]

here is a crazy thought - what if this thing goes down to around 1750 which is the long term 500 day simple moving ave.

call up a chart and pop that in - does not look as crazy when you see it .

in other words a reversion to the mean.

[trioderob]

here is the next issue the market will care very much about:

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/10/16/uk-europe-banks-idUKKCN0I51JW20141016

[trioderob]

good economic news today - long side looks good

use caution - still very volatile market

I outta here - will pass this thread over to Dean for his viewpoints and comments

Edited October 16, 2014 by trioderob

[Dypsisdean]

I think the technicals are in control this week - margin calls, support levels, money flows, hedge funds, etc. Sometimes fundamentals take the back seat and have too many cross currents.

[trioderob]

YEAAAA HAAAAAA !

[trioderob]

be careful - these type of rally's can also get the rug pulled out quickly.

this is the type market to stay on your toes

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^RUT+Interactive#symbol=^RUT;range=1d

[John Case]

Market up today on statement from a Fed official that a QE4 may be in the works....seems to me that the Wall Streets pigs cannot survive without the government feeding them scraps....we shall what happens if QE4 does not materialize.....I suspect more volatility...

[trioderob]

John -

you might want to look at this and save the web page - Dean you too

I outta here !

http://www.ashraflaidi.com/forex-news/what-the-bullard-bomb-really-means

Edited October 17, 2014 by trioderob