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March 2014 Stock Talk


tank

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Lots of market bubble talk.

Definitely appears to be a big one in the Fuel Cell business. FCEL released a decent ER last night and it appears to be vying for the lead on who will inflate the bubble the most.

Question is, if PLUG does have a decent ER on Thursday (Wednesday night?) will it become Tesla Jr.? If the ER is seen as bad will PLUG, FCEL, and BLDP deflate 50% or more as their bubbles pop?

Jason

Gainesville, Florida

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Based on reality they should crater, but being that these are driven by greed and emotion who knows. Being that you have a taste for these types of stocks here is an early bloomer for you, CPST, another bad attempt at buying green stocks for me.

Edited by redant

Jupiter FL

in the Zone formally known as 10A

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Based on reality they should crater, but being that these are driven by greed and emotion who knows. Being that you have a taste for these types of stocks here is an early bloomer for you, CPST, another bad attempt at buying green stocks for me.

Come on, I have a bunch of boring stuff, pretty much 70% of my portfolio is index ETFs, dividend funds and big slow blue chip stocks. Who wants to talk about that? CPST looks like its having a good day today :) . Also, I would bet on PLUG, etc, to crater. I do expect it to continue to rise or at least not crater up until its ER. Who knows what will happen after that. I plan on exiting either all or a substantial amount of my position in all of my "Fuel Cell" stocks before the PLUG ER. If it tanks, great, if it rockets up then I'll just have to get over it.

Jason

Gainesville, Florida

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"big slow blue chip stocks. Who wants to talk about that?" I do when the opportunity is right. 99% of my stuff is boring, having been burned in the get rich quick stocks to many times. You do seem to have a good ability to make some money on the momentum trades which is great.

The big three fuel cell stocks have been around a long time, 1993 for FCEL. 1996 for BLDP, 2000 for PLUG, they have never been realist stocks but have fed of the emotion that there is something new and great around the corner, which still hasn't happened. I'm guessing it's just a new audience or computers doing the trading based on the volatility. Just not enough people in the world to have volumes like this in these puny little companies.

It cracks me up when I see the news report these stock making record highs, their records don't go back far enough.

Edited by redant

Jupiter FL

in the Zone formally known as 10A

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"big slow blue chip stocks. Who wants to talk about that?" I do when the opportunity is right. 99% of my stuff is boring, having been burned in the get rich quick stocks to many times. You do seem to have a good ability to make some money on the momentum trades which is great.

The big three fuel cell stocks have been around a long time, 1993 for FCEL. 1996 for BLDP, 2000 for PLUG, they have never been realist stocks but have fed of the emotion that there is something new and great around the corner, which still hasn't happened. I'm guessing it's just a new audience or computers doing the trading based on the volatility. Just not enough people in the world to have volumes like this in these puny little companies.

It cracks me up when I see the news report these stock making record highs, their records don't go back far enough.

All three just hit their stops.

Bubble may have popped for now.

REALLY happy with how I did and now just an observer.

May buy back in depending on what happens. Going to go back to watching moss grow :) and hoping all of the stuff that's in the red will turn green.

Again, I agree with everything you said, and luckily I kept tight stops on all of these.

Edited by tank

Jason

Gainesville, Florida

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Citron has PLUG valued at 0.5.

Citron has PLUG valued at 0.5.

That's probably about right, :mrlooney: Overall I think the markets going to peter out for a while, just no reasons to go higher that I can see and lots of negative talk from the talking heads.

"Mortimer, my heart..... Sellllllll!!!!!!!" What a great movie!

Edited by redant

Jupiter FL

in the Zone formally known as 10A

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right here and now

you guys bullish or bearish for the general US markets - the next 30 days ?

real market - not games.

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Citron has PLUG valued at 0.5.

Citron has PLUG valued at 0.5.

That's probably about right, :mrlooney: Overall I think the markets going to peter out for a while, just no reasons to go higher that I can see and lots of negative talk from the talking heads.

"Mortimer, my heart..... Sellllllll!!!!!!!" What a great movie!

Trading Places would probably be in my top 20 favorite movies.

PLUG ER coming up. Interesting to see what happens. Plug is still up about 50% for the month, but that could change in a blink ....

Another stock that I'm following (and own) is EOX whose earnings is up today. Kinda looking for a reason to dump this one. Hopefully it won't happen today!

Maybe its time to buy some bonds.

Jason

Gainesville, Florida

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So Tank, I forgot which pot stocks had even the smallest degree of validity? refresh my memory please.

Jupiter FL

in the Zone formally known as 10A

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So Tank, I forgot which pot stocks had even the smallest degree of validity? refresh my memory please.

FSPM

Jason

Gainesville, Florida

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Finally got burned on one of these, but to only a small amount (assuming it tanks when the SEC starts letting it trade again)

PTOG

Right when I was about to triple up :sick: !

http://www.hotstocked.com/article/78932/petrotech-oil-amp-gas-inc-otcmkts-ptog-s-pump.html

Edited by tank

Jason

Gainesville, Florida

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Also,

CUR is moving again.

Neuralstem, Inc. (NYSEMKT:CUR) hit an all-time high after declaring that the final results from the Phase I safety trial using NSI-566 spinal cord stem cells in the treatment of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS or Lou Gehrig’s disease) were published in the peer-reviewed journal, “Annals of Neurology”. The “Intraspinal Neural Stem Cell Transplantation in Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis: Phase I Trial Outcomes,” provided updated results from Phase I interim data, reported earlier, to include data from the last six patients in the trial. The company said that these six patients were the first to receive cervical stem cell transplants.

Jason

Gainesville, Florida

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So Tank, I forgot which pot stocks had even the smallest degree of validity? refresh my memory please.

FSPM

I would give it just over the smallest degree of validity.

Jason

Gainesville, Florida

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Got back in on YHOO on Thursday. Hopefully this will will make it to the mid 40s before its next ER.

Jason

Gainesville, Florida

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The dead zone, no reason to buy, no reason to sell, just go back to sleep!.

Jupiter FL

in the Zone formally known as 10A

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Blaaaaah! Nothing to see here, move along.

Hey, you're a lot of help! I have been house cleaning in my IRA where I'm free to do things without IRS issues, liquidated my final position in JGT, overall lost a bit on the trade but made a nice DIV along the way which more then made up for the loss. I was surprised not to see the trade make up some of it's negative NAV to true value but time to move along. I only have a handful of key positions in my IRA at this point, patiently waiting for something that looks like a bargain.

Jupiter FL

in the Zone formally known as 10A

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market at cross roads

high beta getting killed

market failed at the 50

money pouring into EEM

Dean-

any comments or criticisms ???

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Dean-

any comments or criticisms ???

Nothing other than what I already anticipated a while back. I'm sure I could find those comments, but too lazy to look. They were that I thought a period of "consolidation" was in order - and that would be accomplished either by a correction or a period of "backing and filling." And it looks as if that has been occurring.

But don't ask me exactly when that will end - remember, I won't pretend to be able to time it - short term. But I wouldn't be surprised to see it last another quarter, or until the end of summer. So I'm still just collecting dividends, waiting for some possible news and products from AAPL, and would try to pick a trade if we had a deeper pull back than the last one - expecting some gains to be in place at year end or January 2015.

I might mention that I think there is a possibility that the political landscape (elections) could play a part and bears watching.

animated-volcano-image-0010.gif.71ccc48bfc1ec622a0adca187eabaaa4.gif

Kona, on The Big Island
Hawaii - Land of Volcanoes

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Dean-

thanks for the input.

the thing is you could be correct or you could be wrong.

I am not sure in this case how to know if to have just made a good or bad call.

I assume what are saying is you don't anticipate it rocketing here to new highs and also you don't expect a new bear market 15 % correction -just a choppy middling market.

is this a correct statement ?

one other thing - give me your feedback on this chart please:

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=EEM+Interactive#symbol=EEM;range=5d

Edited by trioderob
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Yep Rob - I could be right, or I could be wrong - just like every other human on the planet.

I see it as something like this --- Stocks are still close to fairly valued, within 5% either way. So they can easily rise 5%, fall 5%, and/or meander in between until something changes - earnings, interest rates, tax policies, etc. Trying to trade that is impossible, so I'm sitting tight until something changes - content with the meandering, collecting dividends. I'm just playing the probabilities, because I don't seem to have a lot of conviction either way.

If I'm wrong and there is more upside, I will be happy I'm wrong. If there is a 10% correction, I am positioned and prepared to take advantage of that. So I'm covered for everything but an extended bear market of 20%+ - the least likely scenario - IMO. But if it happens, and I'm caught completely flatfooted, I'll just have to sit it out like the last one, and hopefully have the cash and the time to take advantage of some deals. Hopefully I'll have the foresight to hedge a bit if things get shaky again like that.

But I don't own the market, I own stock. And I am still anticipating that AAPL will outperform the market over the next 6-9 months as it has the last 6-9 months.

Your chart to me looks like it is near the middle of a 2 year trading range. So, similar to the U.S. market in that there is an equal probability of a small upside as there is of a small downside.

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Kona, on The Big Island
Hawaii - Land of Volcanoes

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Over the last 6 months apple has just barely outperformed the market and has done so with much higher volatility, the volatility for the present return is the reason I dumped. Unless you truly expect apple to do something amazing in the near future I don't believe it's a particularly good investment any longer. Goggle has crushed apple over that same time span and to me seems to still be a very innovative company. I just think apples best days are behind them until I see something change.

Jupiter FL

in the Zone formally known as 10A

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that's what I love about you Dean.

if its raining - you make hay.

if you have lemons - you make lemonade

Edited by trioderob
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Might all be true about Apple, but so is the following.

From Motley Fool - "Apple's stock outperformed the market during the week with a 0.75% gain versus the S&P 500's 0.5% decline. The outperformance helped Apple finish 1.5 percentage points ahead of the S&P 500 in March."

And from the charts. Sales, and market share, and products, etc etc etc are all great - but what about the stock? Here's a yearly comparison of Apple compared to Samsung. Wasn't even close. Also outperformed Samsung the last month, 3 months, 6 months, and 3 years - not even counting dividends.

post-11-0-39946700-1396254978_thumb.png

But I would agree, Apple is no longer a get rich quick, explosive growth story. And I definitely liked it better at $400 than the mid $500s. But there may still be a few pleasant surprises this year. And I can't see realizing short term cap gains right here.

And Google is a great company. But over the last year, if you throw in a 5% dividend for Apple, it has outperformed Apple by about 10%. Not really a crushing defeat. But yes, a defeat nonetheless. :)

post-11-0-75046200-1396257302_thumb.png

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Kona, on The Big Island
Hawaii - Land of Volcanoes

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If anyone had PRAN in the real world, I hope you got out before it dropped over 70% of its value!

Jason

Gainesville, Florida

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Might all be true about Apple, but so is the following.

From Motley Fool - "Apple's stock outperformed the market during the week with a 0.75% gain versus the S&P 500's 0.5% decline. The outperformance helped Apple finish 1.5 percentage points ahead of the S&P 500 in March."

And from the charts. Sales, and market share, and products, etc etc etc are all great - but what about the stock? Here's a yearly comparison of Apple compared to Samsung. Wasn't even close. Also outperformed Samsung the last month, 3 months, 6 months, and 3 years - not even counting dividends.

attachicon.gifsamsung.png

But I would agree, Apple is no longer a get rich quick, explosive growth story. And I definitely liked it better at $400 than the mid $500s. But there may still be a few pleasant surprises this year. And I can't see realizing short term cap gains right here.

And Google is a great company. But over the last year, if you throw in a 5% dividend for Apple, it has outperformed Apple by about 10%. Not really a crushing defeat. But yes, a defeat nonetheless. :)

attachicon.gifgoog.png

And here is a sneaky one MSFT has crushed apple as an investment even going back for the last 2 years, way less volatile and much better performance. It does suck about capital gains but at a certain point you need to see whats happening to the company your investing in. No imaginative products since Steve jobs passed, eroding market share and ability to command a premium.

Jupiter FL

in the Zone formally known as 10A

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If anyone had PRAN in the real world, I hope you got out before it dropped over 70% of its value!

i was out a long time ago

Jupiter FL

in the Zone formally known as 10A

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And here is a sneaky one MSFT has crushed apple as an investment even going back for the last 2 years, way less volatile and much better performance. It does suck about capital gains but at a certain point you need to see whats happening to the company your investing in. No imaginative products since Steve jobs passed, eroding market share and ability to command a premium.

Yep - I am apprehensive about earnings for this quarter and next - could disappoint. But I think I am in until the next phone release, as it will gauge where they are going with that whole market sector. I drool at all the new releases with the nice screens I see. Plus by year's end, they better have some other "surprise" that would indicate they have not been sitting on their hands.

Possibilities:

- partner with Tesla for battery technology

- partner with Comcast for dominance in the living room

- or buying NetFlix

- partner with a company like American Express for innovative "digital" payment system

- Apple TV

- iWatch

But yes, they have been late to the party on all these possibilities. Even I have a Roku, and not the Apple TV - and I think it's great. I don't know how they could convince me to change.

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Kona, on The Big Island
Hawaii - Land of Volcanoes

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What the heck happened to the rankings? They tightened quite a bit, and there's a new leader after many months.

post-11-0-79939000-1396302056_thumb.png

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Kona, on The Big Island
Hawaii - Land of Volcanoes

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Larry got crushed in PRAN today, I barely have anything on.

Dean nothing on your list is overly exciting for me regarding Apple. It's like there streaming music, does anyone you know use it? I listen to a lot more music then I watch TV, have had Pandora 1 for years building up a near perfect music library for my taste. What could Apple ever do to win me away (they should have just bought Pandora), point being if your late to the party don't even bother showing up. And in regards to the comcast deal I'd rather buy comcast then apple if that happens.

I'm not really an Apple basher but just trying to decipher if the run is over. Presently my position suggests I believe it is.

Edited by redant

Jupiter FL

in the Zone formally known as 10A

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