Big Freeze of 2014 - I just as soon start the thread now

[_Keith]

It won't quite be the 2010/11 freeze we had, but it is a 10 year freeze event. I have been bringing in in potted plants, and trying to decide what action, if any to take on others. I will let quite a few of them go. I am really on the fence about whether to brings in those 6 new Mules, still in pots. The are all tucked together, with bags of Oak Leaves piled around them. Still they are investment I don't want to loose, not even one of them. But, they are kind of large. So far the wife is amenable to sharing the home for a few days.

This is our latest forecast. Trending is still going downward.

How are you looking for the Big Freeze of 2014?

[gsytch]

The current local forecast for my area of coastal north Tampa Bay. Not too bad.

Night

Partly cloudy skies early will become overcast later during the night. Low around 65F. Winds SW at 5 to 10 mph.

Monday

Cloudy. High 66F. Winds NW at 20 to 30 mph.

Monday Night

Mostly cloudy. Low near 35F. Winds NNW at 15 to 25 mph.

Tuesday

Cloudy skies. High 44F. Winds NNE at 10 to 20 mph.

Tuesday Night

Overcast. Low 36F. Winds NE at 10 to 15 mph.

Wednesday

Overcast. High 63F. Winds ENE at 10 to 15

[_Keith]

The current local forecast for my area of coastal north Tampa Bay. Not too bad.

Night

Partly cloudy skies early will become overcast later during the night. Low around 65F. Winds SW at 5 to 10 mph.

Monday

Cloudy. High 66F. Winds NW at 20 to 30 mph.

Monday Night

Mostly cloudy. Low near 35F. Winds NNW at 15 to 25 mph.

Tuesday

Cloudy skies. High 44F. Winds NNE at 10 to 20 mph.

Tuesday Night

Overcast. Low 36F. Winds NE at 10 to 15 mph.

Wednesday

Overcast. High 63F. Winds ENE at 10 to 15

That is awfully nice forecast compared to mine. Houston comes out a little better too, Looks like La, Ms, Al, and the Florida Panhandle will catch center of the dip this go around. Houston comes out a little better with only 26 one night, but Destin, right on the coast in the Panhandle is showing a night at 24.

[palmsOrl]

Interestingly, the lows forecast for the central and southern part of Florida are nothing remarkable for this time of year. 34F for Orlando (the official forecast low) is cold, but nothing to write home about. Even for north FL, a night of low 20s is about average for most areas in a given year. For the zone 8 areas of the northern FL Panhandle, a night in the mid to upper teens is also common on an annual basis. As mentioned though, the temp guidance has been trending downward, so this could change over the next day or two.

[enigma99]

The GFS850 showed most of the energy shooting into the gulf, so South Fl reallt got lucky on this one.

[Alicehunter2000]

Monday night and Tues. night

Santa Rosa Beach.....21 F. and 27 F.

Panama City Beach.....23 F. and 27 F.

I got a plan for the pool area...will post pics

Hope the C. albas and queens will fair ok in the yard....we will see.

Keith...you got a garage? If not the house would do fine for 1 or 2 nights...wifey will understand. Plants in pots + Cold....not a good combo IMO...in the ground your mules would be fine I would think.

[Mauna Kea Cloudforest]

It won't quite be the 2010/11 freeze we had, but it is a 10 year freeze event. I have been bringing in in potted plants, and trying to decide what action, if any to take on others. I will let quite a few of them go. I am really on the fence about whether to brings in those 6 new Mules, still in pots. The are all tucked together, with bags of Oak Leaves piled around them. Still they are investment I don't want to loose, not even one of them. But, they are kind of large. So far the wife is amenable to sharing the home for a few days.

This is our latest forecast. Trending is still going downward.

How are you looking for the Big Freeze of 2014?

Keith, given that forecast, give those mules and any other palms you didn't yet plant a chance and put them in a warm place just to get through this freeze. This is an unusual year, you can still get a lot of pleasure out of those palms and once they're bigger they'll have a fighting chance to make it on their own in your zone.

[Tropicdoc]

WTF!? Why does the arctic air dip down right on top of us! Will lug a lot of supposedly hardy plants inside. Not gonna chance it.

[enigma99]

WTF!? Why does the arctic air dip down right on top of us! Will lug a lot of supposedly hardy plants inside. Not gonna chance it.

You are in zone 9a right? Yet the forecast is till 9a?

[Mike in Nelson]

I was thinking of you folks in Florida but California a little worse it seems?

[enigma99]

Early December in California, we had some record lows... and it was cold for a long time. Since then, we've had a very strong high pressure with warm weather.

For this Florida event, most of the cold is missing and going west of Florida over the Gulf. Florida is very lucky because I think the 30s would have reached the keys with widespread hard freezes across the state. It is some very very cold air

[gsytch]

Interestingly, the lows forecast for the central and southern part of Florida are nothing remarkable for this time of year. 34F for Orlando (the official forecast low) is cold, but nothing to write home about. Even for north FL, a night of low 20s is about average for most areas in a given year. For the zone 8 areas of the northern FL Panhandle, a night in the mid to upper teens is also common on an annual basis. As mentioned though, the temp guidance has been trending downward, so this could change over the next day or two.

IT appears my forecasted temps are conservative, considering the impact and brutal nature of this cold. Due to the cold front last week, the Gulf's temps are down, too, so less influence. However, a night around freezing is expected a few times here and there. There is a quick warmup right after this. Wed morning, when the winds die down, may prove troublesome.

[Ed in Houston]

NOAA has lowered the forcast in my area in SE Houston from 26 to 23 for Tuesday AM. New Orleans looks to be have about the same forecast. If this come to past, many commonly planted area palms will be damaged, queens, pygmy dates, Chinese fans. Here is an abbriviated run down on minimum temps over the last couple of decades at my place.

1990-2008: All lows 25F or above, 20% of years 32 or above.

2009-2010: 22F

2010-2011: 22F

2011-2012: 32F

2012-2013: 32F

2013-2014 Low 20s?

The recent 22F lows killed half(?) the pygmy dates and there was enough damage to the queens and Chinese fans that it took two years to fully recover. Of coarse there were many other hardier area palms that were unfazed.

I planted a Majesty palm a couple of years ago that I expect will be toast. I will try and protect my 6 foot trunked pygmy date.

Ed in Houston

[Xerarch]

Just saw that forecast lows for both Jacksonville and Houston Monday night are 21 degrees, ouch, proof that these really are 9a climates. Don't worry though, I'm sure people will continue to post photos of "Jacksonville" with coconuts, lol

[The7thLegend]

Just saw that forecast lows for both Jacksonville and Houston Monday night are 21 degrees, ouch, proof that these really are 9a climates. Don't worry though, I'm sure people will continue to post photos of "Jacksonville" with coconuts, lol

I won't be one of them posting Cocos. InAccu Weather shows 16 for Jax. WTH?

[gsytch]

Just saw that forecast lows for both Jacksonville and Houston Monday night are 21 degrees, ouch, proof that these really are 9a climates. Don't worry though, I'm sure people will continue to post photos of "Jacksonville" with coconuts, lol

I won't be one of them posting Cocos. InAccu Weather shows 16 for Jax. WTH?

If you change your zip, you will see the forecast change, too. AccuW is calling for 27F at my house, yet if I change to Tarpon Springs zip (5 mi south) it calls for 34F. I do believe they take their forecasts off the nearest airport. In my case, rural Hernando County, which is actually not only further away, but far north and east and easily 5-7 degrees colder than me. Weather.com does that, too. So it is just an estimate. My experience tells me when they call for 32F in Tampa, I am at 31/32F and so on. It will be cold!!!!!! BEAUTIFUL 72F and sunny right now - the calm before the storm.

[Xerarch]

Just saw that forecast lows for both Jacksonville and Houston Monday night are 21 degrees, ouch, proof that these really are 9a climates. Don't worry though, I'm sure people will continue to post photos of "Jacksonville" with coconuts, lol

I won't be one of them posting Cocos. InAccu Weather shows 16 for Jax. WTH?

Mostly I'm referring to publications, online articles etc. people that don't know any better, they think Florida and post the most tropical looking photo they can find. There is another thread here somewhere that had an online article with some coconuts pictured that was supposed to be Jacksonville, ya right.

[_Keith]

It is a balmy 66 out there right now. I am picking up the rest of the pots shirtless and enjoying it. I doubled checked the forecast to see if things had changed, but I was assured that Johnny Death would be blowing in around 4PM.

[Mauna Kea Cloudforest]

The GFS seems to suggest the lowered heights are mostly well to the North of both the Gulf Coast and the Florida panhandle. it looks like there will be some pretty tight pressure gradients leading to a decent amount of wind. I am not that familiar with the weather patterns in the Southeast, but from the looks of it, you will have plenty of air movement and you're sitting under decent heights down there by the Gulf. Unless you're in the Northern end of the various Gulf States, this looks like a 9b type of event at worst.

The fellow in North Georgia definitely has something to worry about, but this cold event doesn't look like it would even affect zone deniers along the Gulf Coast. What am I missing here? Is the wind supposed to advect cold air down there without lowering heights? How does that work? Am I looking at the wrong models?

[Xhoniwaters1]

I certainly hope your right Axel. It's going to be hard making a prediction for my specific location. But taking in all the factors and the predicted lows that are for the surrounding locations, my guess is for Pensacola beach, we could see anything from 20-26 degrees for Tuesday morning. I have about 5 miles of water and a peninsula that are telling me it won't be as bad as it seems.

[_Keith]

The GFS seems to suggest the lowered heights are mostly well to the North of both the Gulf Coast and the Florida panhandle. it looks like there will be some pretty tight pressure gradients leading to a decent amount of wind. I am not that familiar with the weather patterns in the Southeast, but from the looks of it, you will have plenty of air movement and you're sitting under decent heights down there by the Gulf. Unless you're in the Northern end of the various Gulf States, this looks like a 9b type of event at worst.

The fellow in North Georgia definitely has something to worry about, but this cold event doesn't look like it would even affect zone deniers along the Gulf Coast. What am I missing here? Is the wind supposed to advect cold air down there without lowering heights? How does that work? Am I looking at the wrong models?

The temps listed are those that will be experienced at ground level. And while wind is your friend during a radiative freeze, during an advective freeze when the temps dip well below freezing, wind quickly becomes your enemy whisking away stored heat in the plants and top of the ground. The difference between a freezer and a blast freezer so to speak, which is speed toward reducing temperature.

[_Keith]

WTF!? Why does the arctic air dip down right on top of us! Will lug a lot of supposedly hardy plants inside. Not gonna chance it.

You are in zone 9a right? Yet the forecast is till 9a?

Of course, you are technically correct. That is the sucker punch of the northern gulf coast. We saw these temps in 2010, lower actually. Prior to that we had not seen the bottom of the Zone in a couple of decades. For the last 2 years I lived here in Zone 10a or higher. My very tropical looking garden will die back hard and appear more temperate this year. It is worse for zone pushers, but 2010 was my final cure on that one. I do have some marginal palms in the garden that were gifts as seedlings. How could I not plant those, and I had hoped they might get a few years under their belt before facing something like this, but as we Cajuns say, C'est la vie.

[palmsOrl]

This event will be cold for FL, but will be nowhere near all-time record cold. Here is a brief comparison to the worst cold wave of the 20th century for FL, 1985. To beat the 1985 event here in Orlando, we would have to do better than 19F/36F. 19F was an all-time record low for Orlando (there are reports of 18F in both the 19th and 20th centuries that aren't included in the record). 36F for the high the same day is the all-time coldest day on record for Orlando. Compare that to a forecast for this event of 29-31F for lows and 46-49F one day for the high. It is clear this event is not even in the same league as the 1985 event, we are looking at a run of the mill light freeze here.

To further put this event in perspective, regarding FL, the 1985 event resulted in a low of 7F in Jacksonville and 10F in Gainesville. Additionally, Tallahassee saw 6F that year (and even this wasn't close to the all-time record -2F from 1899). Also, Pensacola saw 5F in 1985, versus 18F forecast for Tuesday morning.

I will be protecting what I can, mostly covering sensitive stuff.

[_Keith]

This event will be cold for FL, but will be nowhere near all-time record cold. Here is a brief comparison to the worst cold wave of the 20th century for FL, 1985. To beat the 1985 event here in Orlando, we would have to do better than 19F/36F. 19F was an all-time record low for Orlando (there are reports of 18F in both the 19th and 20th centuries that aren't included in the record). 36F for the high the same day is the all-time coldest day on record for Orlando. Compare that to a forecast for this event of 29-31F for lows and 46-49F one day for the high. It is clear this event is not even in the same league as the 1985 event, we are looking at a run of the mill light freeze here.

To further put this event in perspective, regarding FL, the 1985 event resulted in a low of 7F in Jacksonville and 10F in Gainesville. Additionally, Tallahassee saw 6F that year (and even this wasn't close to the all-time record -2F from 1899). Also, Pensacola saw 5F in 1985, versus 18F forecast for Tuesday morning.

I will be protecting what I can, mostly covering sensitive stuff.

The 80s were extremely very cold with super freezes in 83, 85, and 89.

[spockvr6]

Just saw that forecast lows for both Jacksonville and Houston Monday night are 21 degrees, ouch, proof that these really are 9a climates. Don't worry though, I'm sure people will continue to post photos of "Jacksonville" with coconuts, lol

I won't be one of them posting Cocos. InAccu Weather shows 16 for Jax. WTH?

If you change your zip, you will see the forecast change, too. AccuW is calling for 27F at my house, yet if I change to Tarpon Springs zip (5 mi south) it calls for 34F. I do believe they take their forecasts off the nearest airport. In my case, rural Hernando County, which is actually not only further away, but far north and east and easily 5-7 degrees colder than me. Weather.com does that, too. So it is just an estimate. My experience tells me when they call for 32F in Tampa, I am at 31/32F and so on. It will be cold!!!!!! BEAUTIFUL 72F and sunny right now - the calm before the storm.

Try using the NWS point forecaster. It will give their specific forecast for a very small area.

For areas like Tarpon Springs, this is essential. By the water might be 10F warmer (or more) than inland and east of US 19.

Heres the point forecaster screen for my spot in Palm Harbor. If one clicks around to other map areas, the forecasts will change accordingly.

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=28.109315364962182&lon=-82.75760650634766#.Usm2h7QVX1A

[Mauna Kea Cloudforest]

I think I figured how to answer my own question. Cold air advecting in below 950mb, heavy inversion = much colder at ground level. Basically looks like the cold air is sliding underneath the high pressure to the South of the cold low. I think that why all the forecasts are being revised downwards.

[_Keith]

I think I figured how to answer my own question. Cold air advecting in below 950mb, heavy inversion = much colder at ground level. Basically looks like the cold air is sliding underneath the high pressure to the South of the cold low. I think that why all the forecasts are being revised downwards.

Johnny Death is rolling in right now, and rolling in wet. Every palm crown will sit tonight with frozen water in the crown as we hit 25/26 tonight with 10 hours below freezing. Tomorrow will be worse, as NOAA pinpoint is now saying 19 here.

[Mauna Kea Cloudforest]

OK, now I get it. I just can't apply California weather thinking to the East Coast, it's a different animal altogether. I just looked at the Jacksonville forecast, 24F and Cloudy with 20 mile per hour wind. So it's totally convective, there probably won't be any radiational effects whatsoever. How to you deal with something like that? That's just sub-freezing wind, protecting is useless unless you wrap and heat like the Canadians do. 24F air moving at 10 MPH is going to fry anything not capable of taking 24F without tissue damage.

Having just gone through a week long freeze in early December, I empathize. Freezes just suck, this is the one time of the year when the palm hobby just is no fun. But it's all temporary, so get out there and protect your tenders. And Keith, for cryin' out loud, take your potted palms inside, it's just three days' worth of cold, I am sure your wife won't mind you bringing in all your girlfriends.

Here are the GFS surface low temperature maps, not pretty:

+36h

+60 hours

+3.5 days

[_Keith]

OK, now I get it. I just can't apply California weather thinking to the East Coast, it's a different animal altogether. I just looked at the Jacksonville forecast, 24F and Cloudy with 20 mile per hour wind. So it's totally convective, there probably won't be any radiational effects whatsoever. How to you deal with something like that? That's just sub-freezing wind, protecting is useless unless you wrap and heat like the Canadians do. 24F air moving at 10 MPH is going to fry anything not capable of taking 24F without tissue damage.

Having just gone through a week long freeze in early December, I empathize. Freezes just suck, this is the one time of the year when the palm hobby just is no fun. But it's all temporary, so get out there and protect your tenders. And Keith, for cryin' out loud, take your potted palms inside, it's just three days' worth of cold, I am sure your wife won't mind you bringing in all your girlfriends.

Axel, wife is a trooper. She was saying bring them in before I was. But I have to admit, had I not driven 1600 miles round trip to get them, I might have left one out just to see if it would make it. Everything in a pot that matters will be brought inside.

The seedlings will get the bucket treatment. Due to their size, not much I can do for the B. alfredii except to toss an old blanket over them tomorrow after things dry off.

In answer to "how do you deal with that" being these types of freezes, here is my plan.

1. When it is cold and wet outside, stay inside.
2. Plant things that can take it so one doesn't lose sleep over this stuff.
3. Don't invest more in plants than you can afford to lose on plants.
4. Remember it is a plant, only a plant, if it dies we all still live.
5. Don't worry about replacement cost. You were going to buy more plants next year anyway, now you have a legitimate reason other than your addiction.
6. If you are really lucky, the plant that dies will be the one you have been regretting planting in "that spot" in the first place.
7. Crank up a fire, pour a brandy, and think about all of the plants have been wanting to try and might soon actually have space to plant without having to Valeze your property.
8. Oh, and last, still make a lot of noise about the freeze, because after all a gardener must have something to complain about, and weather is usually the most convenient thing. Remember, this freeze will significantly reduce the insect pressure next year, particularly those marginal insects that should not be there in the first place. So not being able to complain about bugs as much this summer, you really need to milk this freeze for all its worth.

[gsytch]

Yet today was beautiful! Almost 80F, clear sunny skies, light breeze, rather humid. Just awesome! The calm before the storm. All is covered in frost cloth. Some sensitive stuff moved in. However, I do not believe ti will be a horror show. Rather, just a quick light freeze for my area. Today's warmth will help the frost cloth work better. Then, back to warmth come Thursday! Roller coaster ride................

[BS Man about Palms]

Good Luck Folks

[_Keith]

New Mules are all protected. They get to sit this one out. Behind them is a full size China cabinet, a 7 foot dining tables and those are 9-foot ceilings. Still hard to believe I got those boys for $30 each. A few years ago, when Mules were relatively hard to find, I paid 5 times that much for one half that size.

[Xerarch]

Heck those are nice for $30, I would buy some for sure if I lived somewhere where they would grow.

[Silas_Sancona]

82 today and almost perfect out atm. Definitely a good day spent building new plant benches.

Going forward, noticing an interesting spread between what the Weather Service and Accuweather are calling for. Noaa's current forecast has pushed temps down to 38F Tuesday morning, and right around 32F Wednesday morning. Accuweather seems to bottom out at 36F for both mornings here.. Then back to 82 by next Friday. Should be interesting how the chips fall and what influence being surrounded by lakes, and roughly 10 minutes from the coast in 3 directions has on how low temps go here. Further away from the water (Lakewood Ranch area) temps may drop to around 27-25F per the NOAA's current thinking.

As for the cold itself, definitely a different animal than what one would expect back in CA. Nice and warm can rapidly give way to 20+mph winds, and feeling like it is 25 out when one of these winter fronts sweeps down from up north. I remember thinking how "water temps dropping into the 50's" during the '10 freeze didn't seem a big deal until walking the beaches over the next couple days and seeing all the dead fish. Being from the same area as Axel, water temps, especially during the winter, are typically somewhere within the 50 degree range.

Another difference, as Keith mentioned, that cold wind can easily damage stuff without the threat of frost or a freeze, especially if there is fresh new growth present.

Aside from a few things that will hang out inside so recent new growth doesn't get damaged, i'm more concerned for a neighbor's Papayas.. they're loaded atm. Good luck to everyone in the heart of this cold spell and thank god this isn't a '10 repeat , or worse!!

-Nathan-

[Tropicdoc]

Keith, I want the tall one! Lol. Not sure if my 1500 W heater will keep my greenhouse above 32. The horror!

[Tropicdoc]

Looking at those mules......they seem to lean heavily toward syagrus...no?

[_Keith]

Doc, I think you are right, but they have been grown under high cover in a dense environment, so that might be clouding their eventual appearance. It'll be another year or two after they are planted out in full sun before we get a clearer picture of what they will eventually look like.

And btw, since it will only be 26 and the ground will still be quite warm, I am going to let the B. alfredii tough it out. But tomorrow, after they are good and dry, I am going to empty those bags of Oak leaves over them completely covering them and then toss a blanket over the whole thing. Hopefully, that keep the growing point in the upper 20s.

[Mauna Kea Cloudforest]

82 today and almost perfect out atm. Definitely a good day spent building new plant benches.

Going forward, noticing an interesting spread between what the Weather Service and Accuweather are calling for. Noaa's current forecast has pushed temps down to 38F Tuesday morning, and right around 32F Wednesday morning. Accuweather seems to bottom out at 36F for both mornings here.. Then back to 82 by next Friday. Should be interesting how the chips fall and what influence being surrounded by lakes, and roughly 10 minutes from the coast in 3 directions has on how low temps go here. Further away from the water (Lakewood Ranch area) temps may drop to around 27-25F per the NOAA's current thinking.

As for the cold itself, definitely a different animal than what one would expect back in CA. Nice and warm can rapidly give way to 20+mph winds, and feeling like it is 25 out when one of these winter fronts sweeps down from up north. I remember thinking how "water temps dropping into the 50's" during the '10 freeze didn't seem a big deal until walking the beaches over the next couple days and seeing all the dead fish. Being from the same area as Axel, water temps, especially during the winter, are typically somewhere within the 50 degree range.

Another difference, as Keith mentioned, that cold wind can easily damage stuff without the threat of frost or a freeze, especially if there is fresh new growth present.

Aside from a few things that will hang out inside so recent new growth doesn't get damaged, i'm more concerned for a neighbor's Papayas.. they're loaded atm. Good luck to everyone in the heart of this cold spell and thank god this isn't a '10 repeat , or worse!!

-Nathan-

When did you move to Florida? Last I remember you lived in San Jose. Talk about a major difference in climate, but you're still stuck in 9b. Man, if you tried to get out of the San Jose cold you didn't go far south enough, another 20 miles and you'd be in the coconut belt.

[Alicehunter2000]

[Alicehunter2000]