Jump to content
IMPORTANT ANNOUNCEMENT ABOUT LOGGING IN ×
  • WELCOME GUEST

    It looks as if you are viewing PalmTalk as an unregistered Guest.

    Please consider registering so as to take better advantage of our vast knowledge base and friendly community.  By registering you will gain access to many features - among them are our powerful Search feature, the ability to Private Message other Users, and be able to post and/or answer questions from all over the world. It is completely free, no “catches,” and you will have complete control over how you wish to use this site.

    PalmTalk is sponsored by the International Palm Society. - an organization dedicated to learning everything about and enjoying palm trees (and their companion plants) while conserving endangered palm species and habitat worldwide. Please take the time to know us all better and register.

    guest Renda04.jpg

Floridian scare #3


SubTropicRay

Recommended Posts

Keep your head on a swivel (as Ron Burgundy suggests).  More talk of the cold stuff coming down yet again.

From NWS:

"....A SECOND PUSH OF COLD AIR MOVES IN BY FRIDAY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE

DROPS INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS AIRMASS COULD BE COLDER

THAN WE ARE CURRENTLY ADVERTISING...ESPECIALLY IF THE HIGH SETTLES

OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND FLORIDA PENINSULA SATURDAY MORNING AS

CURRENT GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING. WILL KEEP TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES

ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR NOW AND WAIT FOR FUTURE RUNS TO CONFIRM THE

COLDER SCENARIO."

Ray

Tampa, Interbay Peninsula, Florida, USA

subtropical USDA Zone 10A

Bokeelia, Pine Island, Florida, USA

subtropical USDA Zone 10B

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Ray, Lets hope that it will only be a scare and the last one for this season.

Scott   :cool:   Citrus Park FL. N.W Tampa   www.aroundmyhouse.com                                                                                                      

Link to comment
Share on other sites

This one is looking to be more of a bonified threat.

Tampa, Interbay Peninsula, Florida, USA

subtropical USDA Zone 10A

Bokeelia, Pine Island, Florida, USA

subtropical USDA Zone 10B

Link to comment
Share on other sites

So far so good on these forecasts......my tolerance has increase this year for some reason.  Now, unless I see a forecast showing something less than 34-35F, I hardly flinch!  We are 10a at best here.......so something into the 30's a few times a year is still a very good winter.

And, as weve seen so many times, we wont know what is going to happen until the morning after.  The forecasts  for 6-8AM will probably not be correct even at the Midnight before.

Larry 

Palm Harbor, FL 10a / Ft Myers, FL 10b

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Time will tell.  I hope you are right.

Tampa, Interbay Peninsula, Florida, USA

subtropical USDA Zone 10A

Bokeelia, Pine Island, Florida, USA

subtropical USDA Zone 10B

Link to comment
Share on other sites

(Ray, Tampa @ Feb. 13 2007,16:46)

QUOTE
Time will tell.  I hope you are right.

I am trying the route of positive thinking in effecting a desired outcome :D

You know....like those tests of people sitting at a  computer screen thinking "even" or "odd" while random numbers pop up and there actually being a statistically measurable effect of their "thoughts"!

Larry 

Palm Harbor, FL 10a / Ft Myers, FL 10b

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just an FYI from Accuweather......

The pattern now though represents what I think will be the last threat to freeze the deep southern food growing areas. This pattern is the kind that can get Florida, a vigorous upper feature over the maritimes with major short waves swinging around the back side. The freeze back in the warm winter of 2001-2002 featured a record low at Orlando the same day there was a record high at Bismark and next Tuesday morning, you have the map for warmth in the northern plains and cold in Florida. That is a problem but the bigger problem is Friday night. The short wave that is coming through the southern plains tomorrow may be able to cause enough clouds to spare the lower rio Grande valley the perfect shot it needs as it forces the cold high to move in a way to just miss. However that moves off the south atlantic coast Friday and allows the straight north shot right into Florida of what will be the coldest air mass of the winter season for the deep south and so Sat morning temps could be below freezing deep into the Peninsula

Coastal San Diego, California

Z10b

Dry summer subtropical/Mediterranean

warm summer/mild winter

Link to comment
Share on other sites

John,

Not to discount the warning but Accuweather cries wolf at least 10 times a year.  I expect it to get cold..again but Accuweather is not the one to say "I told you so".  The 2001-2002 winter was "freezeless" locally.

Ray

Tampa, Interbay Peninsula, Florida, USA

subtropical USDA Zone 10A

Bokeelia, Pine Island, Florida, USA

subtropical USDA Zone 10B

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Well as noted in the Febuary thread...

They (as in weather guessers) have you guys on the west coast , forecast considerably warmer than inland central Florida(Orlando ,Kissimmee),and us over here on the east coast! As the NWS has us and inland hitting the magic  number 32F :(

Scott

Titusville, FL

1/2 mile from the Indian River

USDA Zone COLD

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Scott,

Remember what you wrote a few weeks ago?  The cold event is still a few days off and things change.

Ray

Tampa, Interbay Peninsula, Florida, USA

subtropical USDA Zone 10A

Bokeelia, Pine Island, Florida, USA

subtropical USDA Zone 10B

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Ray,

Yes I remember,I have no faith in these guys getting it right, that is what makes me NERVOUS!!! As Larry said they probably won't have it right even at midnight ,six hours before the final numbers usually come in ???

Plus or minus 4 or 5 degrees either way,with a forecast of 32F... One could be saying, what was all the FUSS about, or crap we just got NAILED! :angry:

One positive,they have raised the Thursday night,friday morning forecast..so it looks like a one night event as of now ,according to the guys I don't trust! :laugh:  

Me thinks, I am a "half empty glass" kinda guy! :;):

Scott

Titusville, FL

1/2 mile from the Indian River

USDA Zone COLD

Link to comment
Share on other sites

John (epicure) posted something from the Accuweather Bastard(i) I believe.  It discusses freezing temps "deep into the peninsula".  This is nothing new in a radiational freeze event.  That means areas of interior Lee, Collier, Dade, Palm Beach and Broward counties will be colder than areas on the coast, 100 miles to the north.

Tampa, Interbay Peninsula, Florida, USA

subtropical USDA Zone 10A

Bokeelia, Pine Island, Florida, USA

subtropical USDA Zone 10B

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Well.....I hope he's wrong. They really are a bunch of weather guessers. It would be nice if at least one of them was right so that you could plan (or not have to plan) as the case may be.

Coastal San Diego, California

Z10b

Dry summer subtropical/Mediterranean

warm summer/mild winter

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Didnt this happen at about the same time last year?????? I seem to remember the morning of the 13th or 14th....not many days off for the shot this year.

And truth be told, I have looked at long and short range forcasts for so long that I know I would have better luck in throwing a cork in Pine Island Sound and finding it a few hours later than in relying on most weather focasts for accurate info .... and I have little faith in either scenario.

Rusty Bell

Pine Island - the Ex-Pat part of Lee County, Fl , USA

Zone 10b, life in the subs!...except when it isn't....

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Plus or minus 4 or 5 degrees either way,with a forecast of 32F... One could be saying, what was all the FUSS about, or crap we just got NAILED!  

One positive,they have raised the Thursday night,friday morning forecast..so it looks like a one night event as of now ,according to the guys I don't trust!  

Me thinks, I am a "half empty glass" kinda guy!  

That's why it's always better to err on the side of caution.... When all my stuff is outside and they forecast anything even close to that dreadful 3? number, I haul as much stuff as I can indoors.....  I know for some of you guys that have alot of stuff firmly planted in the ground, that's not such an easy thing, but for anything that's potted and easy enough to pick up.. heck... It's better to have moved it in vain then to be crying and waiting a year (or even worse have it die) or more to get it back to where it was.

Bobby

Long Island, New York  Zone 7a (where most of the southern Floridians are originally from)

AVERAGE TEMPS

Summer Highs  : 85-90f/day,  68-75f / night

Winter Lows     : 38-45f/day,   25-35f / night

Extreme Low    : 10-20f/day,    0-10f / night   but VERY RARE

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Hey Bobby, youre right of course....When i had my palms in MD I was always ready to go, and even now that i'm on the island its much the same way......  

........i have about 500 plants in pots, but I always have the fans that are on  thermostats ready and will cover stuff like the Vestiaria seedlings....

I guess I just ignore specific degrees and assume it's time to go to work when there is a cold front coming.

Rusty Bell

Pine Island - the Ex-Pat part of Lee County, Fl , USA

Zone 10b, life in the subs!...except when it isn't....

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Rusty,

You might see temps in the mid 40'sF.  I wish my transition to island living had already begun.

Ray

Tampa, Interbay Peninsula, Florida, USA

subtropical USDA Zone 10A

Bokeelia, Pine Island, Florida, USA

subtropical USDA Zone 10B

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Well Ray,  it can always get a tad lower here.....it was actually warmer to the north of us during the last front a few weeks ago because our cloud cover went poof, (here at Jackass Flatts it got to 39), and there was frost scattered around the island......I dont take the zone for granted or blind faith either.

Oh who cares...i just finished digging another 2200 gal pond so i will have more thermal mass for some zone 11 plants...the solar collectors come next year!!!! (no kidding)

Rusty Bell

Pine Island - the Ex-Pat part of Lee County, Fl , USA

Zone 10b, life in the subs!...except when it isn't....

Link to comment
Share on other sites

(Rusty on Pine Is. @ Feb. 13 2007,20:32)

QUOTE
(here at Jackass Flatts it got to 39),

HAHAHAHAHA!

That is a cool name for ones yard  :P

Larry 

Palm Harbor, FL 10a / Ft Myers, FL 10b

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Bobby,

I hear ya, anything that is in a pot comes inside, as you say a little work ,but better safe than sorry.

It's the stuff in the ground that makes me NERVOUS!

Rusty,

Larry and I are using church BINGO balls to predict the temps, but the cork idea has merit also!! :laugh:

Scott

Titusville, FL

1/2 mile from the Indian River

USDA Zone COLD

Link to comment
Share on other sites

And.....to think the low this winter in my yard in Tarpon Springs has been the same as Pine Island!  Boy oh boy do I wish that happened every time.

I dont usually associate frost with Pine Island, but I guess it can happen away from the water?  About how close does one be to remain essentially frostless?  And, is there normally a large temperature gradient on the island as one gets away from the water?  

I know there are still some big palm growers out there, so one knows that the climate is overall very conducive to such..

Larry 

Palm Harbor, FL 10a / Ft Myers, FL 10b

Link to comment
Share on other sites

NWS Forecast does not look good now. For Friday night, I have 33F. I am a bit more worried about this one, because air mass in midwest is brutally cold (-20 windchills), gulf temp has likely cooled somewhat, and there is also quite a bit of  snow cover up north. In addition, doesnt look like cloudy skies will save us.

I think we need to watch this one very closely.

NW Hillsborough County, FL (Near Tampa)

10 miles east of the Gulf of Mexico

Border of Zone 9b/10a

Lakefront Microclimate

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Not too cold right now at 5pm. but I am a little nervous as there is not a cloud in the sky. Not alot of wind either. I just don't want under 32 degrees. I think you folks south will probably be ok with this one based on what I have seen so far today up here. Will post again tonight and let you know what may be coming ya'lls way.

David Simms zone 9a on Highway 30a

200 steps from the Gulf in NW Florida

30 ft. elevation and sandy soil

Link to comment
Share on other sites

David,

It's not tonight ,or even tomorrow night I am worried about . It's FRIDAY night that will tell the TALE !

Scott

Titusville, FL

1/2 mile from the Indian River

USDA Zone COLD

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Rusty north end PI or south end PI?

Alan

Alan…I’m a radical centrist here on the island……directly to my east is Little Pine Is, so I am not surrounded by as much water like the north or south ends…..but it makes little difference on a still morning unless one is backed up to the water…….IMO ¼ mile from any body of water the zone ramping really becomes subjective unless at the north end of the island when the wind blows over Charlotte Harbor…

..And my A. vestiaria and catechu and P Pacifica don’t give squat for subjective, so I will flood my pair of 2000 gal ponds early Saturday AM to keep the temps up just in case.

The growers will likely do one better and use helicopters on Friday night and Saturday morning to stir the air.

Rusty Bell

Pine Island - the Ex-Pat part of Lee County, Fl , USA

Zone 10b, life in the subs!...except when it isn't....

Link to comment
Share on other sites

And.....to think the low this winter in my yard in Tarpon Springs has been the same as Pine Island!  Boy oh boy do I wish that happened every time.

Larry, the frost was typical, just on open surfaces, and here at Jackass Flatts only on a 15x25 patch of “grass”,  in the clear, with no cover…..every other place at Squalor Acres was free of the stuff.

…and I talked with some friends at the south end and they saw the same thing.

Later I measured the damage on some broad leaf weeds, and it only progressed .75 inches from grade, average…..

….which didn’t seem to impress the fire ant mound I nearly knelt upon. :P

I dont usually associate frost with Pine Island, but I guess it can happen away from the water?  About how close does one be to remain essentially frostless?

Although I may already answered that in a previous post, it is possible that there  is an overall island effect, (here or elsewhere),ie. a factor of duration, with which the surrounding water may play a larger role on the entire island, The Flatts included…in that, although a specific low temperature may be reached, its instigation may occur later and be ameliorated sooner.

Damn, that almost sounds official,  like I know what I’m talking about!!!!! Lol! :D

Rusty Bell

Pine Island - the Ex-Pat part of Lee County, Fl , USA

Zone 10b, life in the subs!...except when it isn't....

Link to comment
Share on other sites

in 95  or 96 PI got nailed by cold, Bokelia had the least damage (as usual) but some others not at the tippy top of the island got lychees and longans damaged (mangos too) frozen back pretty good.  I have a buddy with a property on Carissa just of off Stringfellow.  He claims to be on a high spot there.  Just to babble on.

Alan

Tampa, Florida

Zone - 10a

Link to comment
Share on other sites

(Rusty on Pine Is. @ Feb. 14 2007,21:18)

QUOTE
[….which didn’t seem to impress the fire ant mound I nearly knelt upon. :P

I think that a massive freeze would actually be a good tradeoff if it would guarantee that those pests would be gone forever :angry:

Larry 

Palm Harbor, FL 10a / Ft Myers, FL 10b

Link to comment
Share on other sites

(Rusty on Pine Is. @ Feb. 14 2007,21:18)

QUOTE
Larry, the frost was typical, just on open surfaces, and here at Jackass Flatts only on a 15x25 patch of “grass”,  in the clear, with no cover…..every other place at Squalor Acres was free of the stuff.

…and I talked with some friends at the south end and they saw the same thing.

Later I measured the damage on some broad leaf weeds, and it only progressed .75 inches from grade, average…..

See.....I do have at least one advantage to living on this small lot in this typical new construction neighborhood!

It is very hard for frost to form here as the houses are so close together!  

As such, Ive learned that if I plant frost sensitive things in the areas between the houses, then they are "safe".

Larry 

Palm Harbor, FL 10a / Ft Myers, FL 10b

Link to comment
Share on other sites

(Rusty on Pine Is. @ Feb. 14 2007,20:29)

QUOTE
The growers will likely do one better and use helicopters on Friday night and Saturday morning to stir the air.

Great!  Prices on palms just went up!

Larry 

Palm Harbor, FL 10a / Ft Myers, FL 10b

Link to comment
Share on other sites

This frost talk amkes me wonder.......

Is there anywhere on the west coast of FL (that does not sit literally on the Gulf)where frost has essentially never been seen?  I suspect that the southeast coast may have such areas, but what about this side?

Larry 

Palm Harbor, FL 10a / Ft Myers, FL 10b

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'll bet it has rarely if ever frost-ed on Anna Maria Island.

Tampa, Interbay Peninsula, Florida, USA

subtropical USDA Zone 10A

Bokeelia, Pine Island, Florida, USA

subtropical USDA Zone 10B

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Looking ugly for us Friday night by the way.

Tampa, Interbay Peninsula, Florida, USA

subtropical USDA Zone 10A

Bokeelia, Pine Island, Florida, USA

subtropical USDA Zone 10B

Link to comment
Share on other sites

10:00 p.m Just watched local news. There are clouds moving in before morning and the wind is around 8 mph; They are calling for mid 30's here along the coastal areas. So I think I am safe tonight. However the forcast is for a low of 30 degrees tommorow night/Fri. morning and for 29 degrees on Fri night/Sat morning :( . Oh well most of my smaller stuff will come back this summer from the roots, my palms can all handle these temps no problem. I still think you guys down State will be ok on this one..........the good news is March is only two weeks away! We have not hit freezing in March for the last 5 years or more :)

David Simms zone 9a on Highway 30a

200 steps from the Gulf in NW Florida

30 ft. elevation and sandy soil

Link to comment
Share on other sites

This is why I have so little faith in the NWS:

....this is their location  map for Bokeelia (the postal "town" for the northern half of the island

) , which the National Weather Service  Comedy Hour has moved inland, and WOW!!! it looks like P Isle is under water!!!!!

.....guess i wont have to protect those plants Saturday morning  after all! :D

This illustates why anything other than a broad brush is just  out of the question with these clowns....... :P

post-110-1171541105_thumb.jpg

Rusty Bell

Pine Island - the Ex-Pat part of Lee County, Fl , USA

Zone 10b, life in the subs!...except when it isn't....

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Rusty-

Yes....sometimes their default locations are a bit off :D

What you can do to get a better forecast is to click on the desired location on the "Detailed Point Forecast" map (which is the image you posted above), and the NWS forecast for that specific point will then be given.

When I did this for Pine Island, the forecasts were showing 48F-49F.  You rat!  No worries down there in Jackass Flats South!  (BTW - I have named my yard Jackass Flats North due to my recent palm behavior which seems to warrant the moniker).

Larry 

Palm Harbor, FL 10a / Ft Myers, FL 10b

Link to comment
Share on other sites

As of now, NWS is calling for 21F up here in Gainesville Saturday morning.  Lucky I didn't try and get a head start and start planting stuff during our warm stretch last week.  Hopefully this will winter's last blaaast.

Jason

Gainesville, Florida

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I hit a low of 32.9 on my meter this morning in my yard.

its not warming up much as it is 10:30 and its 37 degrees. tommorow we are forcasted at 29 now and friday night 23...

so far this 06/07 winter I have 9b temps and I hope it stays that way.

Luke

Tallahassee, FL - USDA zone 8b/9a

63" rain annually

January avg 65/40 - July avg 92/73

North Florida Palm Society - http://palmsociety.blogspot.com/

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now



  • Recently Browsing

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...