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Australian Tropical Cyclone Season 2011/12 has started


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#41 tropicbreeze

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Posted 23 January 2012 - 11:06 PM

The low has moved virtually right over Darwin and is causing heavy rain. There's a severe weather warning out but the system is expected to drift southwards over the land. It's a huge system in area but with a lot of land interaction it's unlikely to intensify into a cyclone. Barometric pressure has dropped below 1000 hPa throughout Darwin, in Wadeye it's 996 hPa. The outlook is wild windy and wet but no cyclone just yet.

Where the next cyclone will most likely form is off the north west coast of WA.

A low has formed in the monsoon trough near 16S 114E moving west southwest at around 11 knots. It may develop into a tropical cyclone late Wednesday evening or more likely on Thursday. The system is expected to continue to intensify and begin to move south on Friday. Gales associated with the system are not expected to affect the coast on Wednesday or Thursday, but there is a risk that coastal communities near the Northwest Cape may be affected on Friday.

People in the Gascoyne, Pilbara and Kimberley are advised to keep up to date with weather forecasts.
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#42 tropicbreeze

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Posted 24 January 2012 - 06:30 AM

The low over Darwin is continuing to edge southwards putting it more over land. In fact the centre is currently a few kilometres south west of my property. The barometric pressure is going back up around the 1000 hPa mark which is the effect from the land. It needs to get back off the coast to intensify but just not sure where steering will eventually take it. The weather people still only rate it as having a "medium" chance of forming into a cyclone within the next 24 hours.

The low off the WA coast is intensifying and being well out from land it's expected to become a cyclone (TC Iggy) tomorrow (Wednesday) morning, and be a cat 2 the following morning. Then it's likely to head south east for the coast.
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#43 tropicbreeze

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Posted 24 January 2012 - 03:44 PM

The low near Darwin is wreaking a bit of havoc but all the weather bureau is doing is issuing severe weather and flood warnings. There's reports of a lot of trees down, minor damage and flooding. It's similar to the TC Laurence scenario of a few years ago. The weather bureau held off declaring it a cyclone despite the damage occuring. When it moved off the coast it rapidly developed into a cat 5 system.

IDD20040
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory


WARNING

SEVERE WEATHER WARNING
Heavy Rain, Damaging Winds, Abnormally High Tides and Large Waves for people in the Darwin-Daly and Arnhem Districts.
Issued at 5:15 am CST Wednesday 25 January 2012


Synoptic Situation:
An active monsoon trough is located near the north coast and at 3:30 am CST a Tropical Low [996 hPa] was located near latitude 13.6S, longitude 130.7E, approximately 60 km southwest of Adelaide River, moving south southwest at 15 km/h. The low is expected to turn southeast and move further inland today.


Heavy rain which may lead to flash flooding is likely over the Darwin-Daly and northern Arnhem Districts, including Darwin, the Tiwi Islands and the Cobourg Peninsula. A Flood Threat Advice for the Darwin-Daly, Arnhem and Roper-McArthur Districts is also current.

Monsoonal squalls with winds to 60-70 km/h and damaging wind gusts to 110 km/h are expected over the northern Darwin-Daly and Arnhem Districts today, including Darwin and the Tiwi Islands.

Abnormally high tides and large waves are expected in coastal areas between Daly River Mouth and Groote Eylandt.

Between 9:00am yesterday and 5:00am today 227 mm of rain has fallen at Stokes Hill, 209 mm at Point Fawcett on the Tiwi Islands and 173 mm at Darwin Airport. Wind gusts to 80 km/h have been reported across the northwest Darwin-Daly and northern Arnhem Districts.


The Northern Territory Emergency Service advises that people should secure loose outside objects and seek shelter when the conditions deteriorate. Driving conditions may be hazardous - avoid flooded roads and watercourses. Abnormally high tides could cause minor flooding at the coast.

The next warning is due to be issued by 11:00 am


The low off the WA coast is still moving west away from the coast. But it's expected to develop into a cyclone this afternoon, and over night into a cat 2. Then it's expected to do a sharp turn back towards the coast.

Edited by tropicbreeze, 24 January 2012 - 03:45 PM.

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#44 tropicbreeze

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Posted 25 January 2012 - 12:01 AM

The low near Darwin hasn't run it's course yet. The weather bureau is expecting it to keep to a south easterly course which is likely to bring another bout of rain and wind after a brief lull in the Darwin area. Interestingly JWTC had been expecting the low to make it into Joseph Bonaparte Gulf where the sea temperatures are 30 to 32C. They had the possibility of cyclone development as "high".

The Bureau of Meteorology keeps re-issuing virtually the same severe weather warning but has now added the following:

Locally destructive wind gusts to 125 km/h are possible this evening with
thunderstorms in coastal and adjacent inland areas between Dundee Beach and Port
Keats, including Channel Point.


That's certainly cyclone level winds but with the system expected to keep moving inland they're just going to leave it at that.

The low off the WA coast is now expected to develop into a cyclone by 2AM tomorrow morning, and to a cat 2 by afternoon. The track is still expected to be south east by then. They're not expecting gales to hit the coast until Saturday.



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#45 tropicbreeze

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Posted 25 January 2012 - 03:34 PM

TC Iggy has formed off the WA coast and at this stage it's still moving slowly westwards. Later today it's expected to intensify to a cat 2 and do a sharp turn to the south south east. Tomorrow afternoon it's expected to intensify to a cat 3. Gales are still not expected on the coast until Saturday.

The low near Darwin is moving slowly inland but the weather bureau is still issuing the same severe weather warning with winds on the coast and adjacent inland areas gusting to 125 KPH. They keep saying the low will move south east and stay clear of water. However, the latest movement is to the east north east. A large high pressure ridge is moving across the south of the continent which will be why the low is edging northwards and could possibly influence it to swing west again. But the weather bureau doesn't appear to be considering this possibility.


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#46 tropicbreeze

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Posted 26 January 2012 - 05:06 PM

TC Iggy is still cat 1, apparently there's high wind shear over top of the system slowing development. But conditions are expected to favour intensification over the next few days. The models are divided further down the track, some indicating continuation south east into the coast, and others indicating a curve to the south west just before the coast.

The low in the Top End has moved south east and is likely to cross into Queensland overnight without going over water. It's intensified to 993 hPa and is moving about 30 KPH. This could have big implications for Queensland weather in the next few days.


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#47 Tyrone

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Posted 26 January 2012 - 09:30 PM

TC Iggy is Cat 2 now at 1.30pm WST
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Millbrook, Western Australia 35S. Warm temperate with climate strongly influenced by the Southern Ocean. Csb Koeppen Climate classification. Winter 8C to 16C min/max, Summer 15C to 24C min/max. Frost free. Approx 900mm rainfall with a winter peak. Driest month Feb with 25mm. 9km (5miles) from Southern Ocean. 6km (3.5miles) from Oyster Harbour. 13m asl. 1/3 clay, 2/3 peat soil on a flood plain.

 

It rains 6 months of the year and the other 6 months it continues dripping off the trees. 

The Tropical Look


#48 tropicbreeze

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Posted 27 January 2012 - 02:43 AM

IDW24100
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this warning.

PRIORITY

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 6
Issued at 2:45 pm WST on Friday 27 January 2012

A Cyclone WATCH is current for coastal areas from Port Hedland to Coral Bay.

At 2:00 pm WST Tropical Cyclone Iggy, Category 2 was estimated to be 560 kilometres northwest of Exmouth and 720 kilometres west northwest of Karratha and moving south southeast at 8 kilometres per hour towards the west Pilbara coast.

Over the next 48 hours TC Iggy will steadily intensify while moving generally southeastwards towards the western Pilbara coast.

Gales may develop near Exmouth by early Sunday and extend to other coastal parts of the Pilbara west of Port Hedland, by Sunday evening. Rainfall is likely to increase on Saturday in coastal parts of the Pilbara. The heaviest rainfall is likely to be confined to within 100 kilometres of the coast. Rainfall totals of over 100mm each day may occur over the weekend.

FESA-State Emergency Service advises that there are no community alerts at present. Communities between Port Hedland and Coral Bay, including communities near Karratha, Onslow and Exmouth, should listen for the next issue.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Iggy at 2:00 pm WST:
.Centre located near...... 18.2 degrees South 110.5 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 55 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the south southeast at 8 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 130 kilometres per hour and INTENSIFYING
.Severity category........ 2
.Central pressure......... 977 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 9:00 pm WST Friday 27 January.
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#49 tropicbreeze

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Posted 27 January 2012 - 02:39 PM

Wind shear over the top of Iggy has been decreasing, current expectations are it will reach cat 4 Monday morning. The steering is still from the monsoonal flow however this is weakening and the subtropical ridge to south is still too weak to take over. Looks like Iggy will slow down in the vicinity of Onslow. Strengthening of the ridge is critical to the outcome as as a change should steer the cyclone to the south west and into an area of higher wind shear and lower sea temperatures. If this happens it's still likely the coast will be hit by gales on Saturday or Sunday. But if the strengthening is too slow then Iggy could continue on directly into the coast.


IDW24100
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 10
Issued at 5:35 am WST on Saturday 28 January 2012

A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Mardie to Ningaloo. A Cyclone WATCH Port Hedland to Mardie and Ningaloo to Coral Bay.

At 5:00 am WST Tropical Cyclone Iggy, Category 2 was estimated to be 325 kilometres northwest of Exmouth and 535 kilometres west of Karratha and moving southeast at 15 kilometres per hour towards the west Pilbara coast.

Over the next 48 hours TC Iggy will steadily intensify while moving generally southeastwards towards the western Pilbara coast.

Gales may develop near the Pilbara coast between Ningaloo and Mardie by Saturday afternoon and could extend east to Port Hedland and south to Coral Bay by Sunday evening.

Heavy rainfall is likely in coastal parts of the Pilbara over the weekend and there will continue to be large swells along the Pilbara and Kimberley coasts.

FESA State Emergency Service (SES) advises of the following community alerts:

BLUE ALERT: People in or near coastal and island communities between Mardie and Coral Bay including the communities of Mardie, Onslow, Exmouth and Coral Bay need to prepare for cyclonic weather and organise an emergency kit including first aid kit, torch, portable radio, spare batteries, food and water.

Communities between Mardie and Port Hedland should listen for the next advice.

People needing SES assistance can call 132 500. In a life threatening situation call 000. For more safety tips visit www.fesa.wa.gov.au


Details of Tropical Cyclone Iggy at 5:00 am WST:
.Centre located near...... 20.0 degrees South 111.8 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 45 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the southeast at 15 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 130 kilometres per hour and INTENSIFYING
.Severity category........ 2
.Central pressure......... 977 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 9:00 am WST Saturday 28 January.

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#50 tropicbreeze

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Posted 29 January 2012 - 02:19 AM

TC Iggy has been virtually stationary for the past 6 hours and is likely to remain so for the next 12 hours. Steering has faded away and when it picks up the cyclone should head south west away from the coast. It may intensify some more, but then move over cooler waters and into higher wind shear. All up, it's not likely to cross the coast anytime soon, and when it eventually does should just be a low pressure system.
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#51 tropicbreeze

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Posted 30 January 2012 - 02:38 AM

TC Iggy is heading westwards now and weakening. It's expected to be below cyclone intensity by Wednesday.
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#52 tropicbreeze

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Posted 30 January 2012 - 05:00 PM

TC Iggy has tracked a little west of south after doing a loop and has intensified slightly. It's now positioned west of Northwest Cape and well out to sea. It's expected to continue a south west track for another day or two before weakening and recurving towards the south east.

The low pressure remains of Iggy are expected to cross the coast at about latitude 28 - 29 degrees south.


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#53 tropicbreeze

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Posted 30 January 2012 - 11:37 PM

TC Iggy is weakening and is likely to be below cyclone intensity by Thursday morning. It's track then is likely to take it across the coast around the Geraldton area.

A low has developed in the southern part of the Gulf of Carpentaria. It appears this low will move across Cape York Peninsula and out into the Coral Sea. Whilst it's likely to intensify, any development looks, at this stage, to remain away from the Queensland coast in the short term.


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#54 tropicbreeze

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Posted 01 February 2012 - 11:02 PM

It's ex-TC Iggy now. heading for the coast around Jurien Bay. The low is expected to bring gusty winds causing a deterioration in the fire weather situation. Further south it's expected to bring some thunderstorms and rain, however the heaviest rain will be off the coast.

The low over Cape York Peninsula is moving eastwards. It's expected to intensify. If a cyclone does form, possibly in the next couple of days, it's not expected to significantly affect the Qld coast.


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#55 Tyrone

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Posted 02 February 2012 - 03:16 PM

Got 20mm of gentle warm rain overnight from old Iggy. Much appreciated.

Went for a swim down Cottesloe yesterday and there was a bit of a storm tide, and some nice big swell rolling in. :)
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Millbrook, Western Australia 35S. Warm temperate with climate strongly influenced by the Southern Ocean. Csb Koeppen Climate classification. Winter 8C to 16C min/max, Summer 15C to 24C min/max. Frost free. Approx 900mm rainfall with a winter peak. Driest month Feb with 25mm. 9km (5miles) from Southern Ocean. 6km (3.5miles) from Oyster Harbour. 13m asl. 1/3 clay, 2/3 peat soil on a flood plain.

 

It rains 6 months of the year and the other 6 months it continues dripping off the trees. 

The Tropical Look


#56 tropicbreeze

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Posted 03 February 2012 - 04:20 PM

The low pressure system over Cape York Peninsula has continued to intensify and is now located approximately 450 kilometres east of Cairns. Radar shows the rain bands to the west of the system are just reaching the coast, most of the rain, however, is off the coast. The system may develop into a cyclone within the next day or two, but it's expected to keep moving eastwards and out of the eastern region. If it developes into a cyclone before it reaches longitute 160 it'll be named Jasmine.

A low pressure system is expected to form in the western Gulf of Carpentaria around the NT/Qld border region in the next few days. This may be the next system to watch.


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#57 tropicbreeze

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Posted 04 February 2012 - 08:21 AM

The low off the Qld coast has now developed into TC Jasmine and is currently about 600 kilometres east of Cairns.The system is intensifying as it continues to move eastwards.
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#58 tropicbreeze

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Posted 05 February 2012 - 03:01 PM

TC Jasmine is currently cat 2 but is expected to strengthen to cat 3 tomorrow as it continues to track eastwards. It's about longitude 156.5 East so should soon move out of the Australian Eastern Region into the Fiji Region. In fact, at the moment it's tracking directly towards Fiji. However, while coming close, it's expected to recurve widely around New Caledonia and head south into colder waters.

There's a low in the Gulf of Carpentaria but it's not showing any sign of developing. A low now out in the Indian Ocean within the Western Region is showing signs of developing.


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#59 aussiearoids

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Posted 05 February 2012 - 10:50 PM

Gee I wish I paid more attention to your posts Zig ,, might have known what was going on on saturday ,, the cyclone you have when your not having one :rolleyes:.
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Michael in palm paradise,
Tully, wet tropics in Australia, over 4 meters of rain every year.
Home of the Golden Gumboot, its over 8m high , our record annual rainfall.

#60 tropicbreeze

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Posted 06 February 2012 - 01:19 PM

This system seems to have been pretty light on with rainfall. Radar images indicated light rain. It was only the very outer bands that affected the Qld coast on the weekend.

RSMC Nadi has TC Jasmine's position at latitude 161.4 East, outside the Eastern Australian Region. It's still cat 2 and strengthening. Wind speeds are now only just below cat 3 level. In 24 hours it's expected to be tracking ESE, and in 48 hours to the SE, steering it away from Nadi.
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#61 tropicbreeze

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Posted 06 March 2012 - 06:47 AM

After a long lull in the tropical weather the monsoon trough is developing in the north western area of Australia. During the lull rainfall in the region was well below normal. However, activity is increasing as the MJO enters phase 4. A low to the east of Cocos Islands is moving west and is likely to pass south of the islands. It will possibly develop into a tropical cyclone but move out of the western zone away from Australia. Thunderstorms near the monsoon trough closer to the coast are likely to organise into a tropical low towards the weekend and intensify further over the weekend.
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#62 tropicbreeze

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Posted 07 March 2012 - 03:03 AM

The tropical low near the Cocos Islands is expected to intensify into a tropical cyclone Thursday or Friday and should be named Koji. However,soon after it's expected to move out of the western region into La Réunion zone.

The area of thunderstorms closer to the WA coast has consolidated into a low which is expected to further intensify over the weekend.
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#63 tropicbreeze

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Posted 07 March 2012 - 06:39 PM

The tropical low near the Cocos Islands developed into Tropical Cyclone Koji this morning (Thursday). It's situated about longitude 92.2 East and moving west south west at about 24 kilometres per hour. By this evening it should have crossed into La Réunion zone.
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#64 tropicbreeze

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Posted 07 March 2012 - 11:11 PM

Tropical Cyclone Koji continues to make its way towards the exit door of the Australian western zone.

The tropical low nearer the WA coast may develop into a cyclone (TC Lua) by Sunday or early next week.

An area of convergence to the north of the Northern Territory may develop into a tropical low over the weekend with an increasing possibility of it further developing into a cyclone over the next week.


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#65 tropicbreeze

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Posted 09 March 2012 - 03:08 AM

Tropical Cyclone Koji is now about latitude 86 east and outside the western zone.

The low off the WA coast is 1001 hPa and still has a possibility of developing into a tropical cyclone on Sunday, although more likely Monday. It's expected to move southwards and eventually impact the Pilbara coast.

The low to the north of the NT is still expected to develop into a tropical low over the weekend and possibly a tropical cyclone later in the week.
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#66 Tyrone

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Posted 09 March 2012 - 03:43 PM

Tropical Cyclone Koji is now about latitude 86 east and outside the western zone.

The low off the WA coast is 1001 hPa and still has a possibility of developing into a tropical cyclone on Sunday, although more likely Monday. It's expected to move southwards and eventually impact the Pilbara coast.

The low to the north of the NT is still expected to develop into a tropical low over the weekend and possibly a tropical cyclone later in the week.


That might bring some humidity and hopefully some rain down with it. It's been as dry as a chip here for about a month and blazing hot too.
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Millbrook, Western Australia 35S. Warm temperate with climate strongly influenced by the Southern Ocean. Csb Koeppen Climate classification. Winter 8C to 16C min/max, Summer 15C to 24C min/max. Frost free. Approx 900mm rainfall with a winter peak. Driest month Feb with 25mm. 9km (5miles) from Southern Ocean. 6km (3.5miles) from Oyster Harbour. 13m asl. 1/3 clay, 2/3 peat soil on a flood plain.

 

It rains 6 months of the year and the other 6 months it continues dripping off the trees. 

The Tropical Look


#67 Walter John

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Posted 09 March 2012 - 05:16 PM


Tropical Cyclone Koji is now about latitude 86 east and outside the western zone.

The low off the WA coast is 1001 hPa and still has a possibility of developing into a tropical cyclone on Sunday, although more likely Monday. It's expected to move southwards and eventually impact the Pilbara coast.

The low to the north of the NT is still expected to develop into a tropical low over the weekend and possibly a tropical cyclone later in the week.


That might bring some humidity and hopefully some rain down with it. It's been as dry as a chip here for about a month and blazing hot too.


I'm coming over to WA Tyrone in late May, early June, staying down at Quindalup. I won't have time for a visit as we are being collected from Perth etc. Hoping the weather isn't cooling down too much at that time.
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Happy Gardening

Cheers,

Wal
Queensland, Australia.


#68 KrisKupsch

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Posted 09 March 2012 - 05:40 PM

Hey Tyrone, any Livistona alfredii around? Regards Kris
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#69 tropicbreeze

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Posted 10 March 2012 - 12:08 AM

The tropical low off the WA coast could still develop into a tropical cyclone by Sunday, however, it's more likely Monday with a possibility of Tuesday. Possibly later in the week it will impact the Pilbara coast.

Tyrone, I think this one may keep too far north to be much use to you. In fact it might whip up some hot easterlies your way instead. But it should give the L. alfredii a good drenching.

A weak tropical low has developed north of the NT in the Arafura Sea. The strong ridge to the south may steer it more westerly as the days go by. It's expected to develop into a tropical cyclone (TC Mitchell) by about Wednesday. At this stage it seems likely it'll make landfall on the Kimberley coast.
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#70 Tyrone

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Posted 10 March 2012 - 05:04 PM



Tropical Cyclone Koji is now about latitude 86 east and outside the western zone.

The low off the WA coast is 1001 hPa and still has a possibility of developing into a tropical cyclone on Sunday, although more likely Monday. It's expected to move southwards and eventually impact the Pilbara coast.

The low to the north of the NT is still expected to develop into a tropical low over the weekend and possibly a tropical cyclone later in the week.


That might bring some humidity and hopefully some rain down with it. It's been as dry as a chip here for about a month and blazing hot too.


I'm coming over to WA Tyrone in late May, early June, staying down at Quindalup. I won't have time for a visit as we are being collected from Perth etc. Hoping the weather isn't cooling down too much at that time.


Could be hit and miss at that time of the year Wal. If our rainy season hits on time, it could be miserable. Still you can get sunny 23C days right up until about the 3rd week in June in a good year. I'm hoping we get average rainfall and not below average rainfall this winter. Below average rainfall produces cold winter nights and I'd rather have some cloud around at night. Sunny in the day is fine, cloud at night is when I want it.
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Millbrook, Western Australia 35S. Warm temperate with climate strongly influenced by the Southern Ocean. Csb Koeppen Climate classification. Winter 8C to 16C min/max, Summer 15C to 24C min/max. Frost free. Approx 900mm rainfall with a winter peak. Driest month Feb with 25mm. 9km (5miles) from Southern Ocean. 6km (3.5miles) from Oyster Harbour. 13m asl. 1/3 clay, 2/3 peat soil on a flood plain.

 

It rains 6 months of the year and the other 6 months it continues dripping off the trees. 

The Tropical Look


#71 Tyrone

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Posted 10 March 2012 - 05:06 PM

Hey Tyrone, any Livistona alfredii around? Regards Kris


Up at Millstream I'm sure there would be some. Not a very common palm around these parts unfortunately. I had one and I killed it. I think I gave it too much humidity. L nasmophila has done well for me.
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Millbrook, Western Australia 35S. Warm temperate with climate strongly influenced by the Southern Ocean. Csb Koeppen Climate classification. Winter 8C to 16C min/max, Summer 15C to 24C min/max. Frost free. Approx 900mm rainfall with a winter peak. Driest month Feb with 25mm. 9km (5miles) from Southern Ocean. 6km (3.5miles) from Oyster Harbour. 13m asl. 1/3 clay, 2/3 peat soil on a flood plain.

 

It rains 6 months of the year and the other 6 months it continues dripping off the trees. 

The Tropical Look


#72 Tyrone

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Posted 10 March 2012 - 05:10 PM

The tropical low off the WA coast could still develop into a tropical cyclone by Sunday, however, it's more likely Monday with a possibility of Tuesday. Possibly later in the week it will impact the Pilbara coast.

Tyrone, I think this one may keep too far north to be much use to you. In fact it might whip up some hot easterlies your way instead. But it should give the L. alfredii a good drenching.

A weak tropical low has developed north of the NT in the Arafura Sea. The strong ridge to the south may steer it more westerly as the days go by. It's expected to develop into a tropical cyclone (TC Mitchell) by about Wednesday. At this stage it seems likely it'll make landfall on the Kimberley coast.


Yes I think you're right. I think it will have a dead on 90 degree to the coast impact up there, in which case it will deflect east rather quickly, and the rainfall will end up somewhere down near Melbourne in the end. The easterlies will get pumped over us again. If it drew in mega amounts of humidity into the WA interior and we then got a a situation where the easterlies blew the humidity back west (it does happen on occasion) then we could get some interesting rain and humidity back to the coast. But it would need to basically flood the wheatbelt to do that. I think it will go too far east. Oh well.
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Millbrook, Western Australia 35S. Warm temperate with climate strongly influenced by the Southern Ocean. Csb Koeppen Climate classification. Winter 8C to 16C min/max, Summer 15C to 24C min/max. Frost free. Approx 900mm rainfall with a winter peak. Driest month Feb with 25mm. 9km (5miles) from Southern Ocean. 6km (3.5miles) from Oyster Harbour. 13m asl. 1/3 clay, 2/3 peat soil on a flood plain.

 

It rains 6 months of the year and the other 6 months it continues dripping off the trees. 

The Tropical Look


#73 Tyrone

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Posted 10 March 2012 - 08:26 PM

That low is down to 999hPa now. Seems to be organising itself now.
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Millbrook, Western Australia 35S. Warm temperate with climate strongly influenced by the Southern Ocean. Csb Koeppen Climate classification. Winter 8C to 16C min/max, Summer 15C to 24C min/max. Frost free. Approx 900mm rainfall with a winter peak. Driest month Feb with 25mm. 9km (5miles) from Southern Ocean. 6km (3.5miles) from Oyster Harbour. 13m asl. 1/3 clay, 2/3 peat soil on a flood plain.

 

It rains 6 months of the year and the other 6 months it continues dripping off the trees. 

The Tropical Look


#74 tropicbreeze

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Posted 11 March 2012 - 09:31 PM

Looks like the low off the Pilbara coast has been 'demoted'. It has also weakened back to 1000 hPa, although this is fairly normal in the way of atmospheric tides where the pressure rises and falls at different times of the day. Although vertical wind shear is light and sea surface temperatures are reasonably high, the system is still disorganised with flaring convection.

The upshot of that is there may be a delay in development to a tropical cyclone so it may lose it's place in the line up for the name TC Lua. That now might go to the low developing off the coast north of Darwin which is expected to reach tropical cyclone strength by Wednesday.

The low off Darwin is currently heading west but is expected to recurve to the south and enter Joseph Bonaparte Gulf, coming in on Darwin from the west à la TC Helen scenario. However the Cyclone Watch Zone extends from Kalumburu to Tiwi Islands.


Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this warning.

PRIORITY

TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 1
Issued at 11:27 am CST [9:57 am WST] on Monday 12 March 2012


A Cyclone WATCH has been declared for a developing tropical low for coastal areas from Cape Hotham to Kalumburu including Darwin and the Tiwi Islands .

At 9:30 am CST [8:00 am WST] a Tropical Low was estimated to be 155 kilometres north northwest of Bathurst Island and 265 kilometres north northwest of Darwin and moving west at 7 kilometres per hour parallel to the coast.

There is the possibility of a cyclone developing but GALES are not expected in coastal areas within the next 24 hours, however gales could develop later.

The Territory Controller advises communities under Watch that now is the time to put together your emergency kit, clear your yards and balconies, and commence home shelter preparations.

Residents of Darwin and Rural Areas are advised that if you DO NOT have accommodation constructed to the Building Code or are unsure of your present accommodation you should determine which public emergency shelter to use. This advice is issued to allow you sufficient time in which to take the necessary
precautions before winds reach a dangerous level.


FESA-State Emergency Service advises that there are no community alerts at present. Communities between Kalumburu and the NT Border should listen for the next advice.

Details of Tropical Low at 9:30 am CST [8:00 am WST]:
.Centre located near...... 10.3 degrees South 129.8 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 85 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west at 7 kilometres per hour
.Central pressure......... 1001 hectoPascals


Please ensure that neighbours have heard and understood this message, particularly new arrivals or those who may not fully understand English.

The next advice will be issued by 5:00 pm CST Monday 12 March [3:30 pm WST Monday 12 March].

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#75 tropicbreeze

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Posted 11 March 2012 - 11:45 PM

The system near Darwin is now ramping up quite rapidly. It's still moving west south west but tomorrow morning is expected to make a sharp swing to the south east. Depending on how sharp the swing turns out it will bring it closer or further to the south of Darwin. Wednesday morning it's expected to be a cat 1, and Wednesday arvo a cat 2. Even if it passes well south of Darwin, the monsoonal flow is expected to wrap into it accelerating winds to the north of the system.
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#76 tropicbreeze

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Posted 12 March 2012 - 03:59 PM

Increasing tropical cyclone risk
Douglas Fenton, Tuesday March 13, 2012 - 09:59 EDT

Two low pressure systems have developed along the monsoon trough to the north of Australia and both systems are forecast to reach cyclone strength over coming days.

A cyclone watch has been issued for a developing tropical low for coastal and island communities from Cape Hotham to Kalumburu, including Darwin and the Tiwi Islands. On Tuesday morning (3:30 am CST) the tropical low was located 365 kilometres west of Darwin and moving southwest at 15 kilometres per hour parallel to the coast.

This low is expected to develop into a tropical cyclone during Wednesday. A strong wind warning is current for waters from Cape Don to the Daly River Mouth. There is also a flood advice out for the Arnhem, Darwin Daly and northwest Victoria River districts due to the prospect of localised flooding and significant stream rises. These districts are likely to see more than 200mm in parts over the next few days. There is the potential for localised falls to exceed 400 mm, particularly about the west coast of the Top End and in the northern Kimberley.

Another low off the Pilbara coast is approximately 300 kilometres northwest of Karratha and has a high chance of developing into a tropical cyclone on Wednesday or Thursday. Although there are differences in computer model guidance, there is the possibility of a coastal impact on Friday or Saturday, bringing increasing wind and rain to coastal and nearby inland areas.

Keep checking weatherzone.com.au for the latest warnings and updates.

- Weatherzone


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#77 ariscott

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Posted 12 March 2012 - 04:18 PM

It will be an interesting night tonight..... I hope they will call warnings tomorrow, otherwise I will have to go to work in the wind again!! Just like last time....
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Ari & Scott

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#78 tropicbreeze

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Posted 12 March 2012 - 06:20 PM

Ari, I'm heading home this arvo. Told them at work I'd wait until today to see how it's panning out. It was forecast to cross the coast south of Wadeye (Port Keats) and seemed like we'd be little affected. But I see the ACCESS model has it making an almost direct line for Darwin, and now BOM have revised their track closer as well. Becoming kind of like TC Helen. Except Helen built up over land before moving out into the Joseph Bonaparte Gulf and intensifying, followed by complete boomerang back at us. I think this one will have much more rain than Helen, and hopefully less wind.
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#79 ariscott

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Posted 13 March 2012 - 01:54 AM

Yep.... I really think this one will do a Helen... even though nobody believes me. At least you would be home, Zig. I hope you are stocked up... foodwise
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Ari & Scott

Darwin, NT, Australia
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#80 tropicbreeze

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Posted 14 March 2012 - 01:53 AM

It's not news now but the low off Darwin headed southwards and crossed the coast in Joseph Bonaparte Gulf without reaching cyclone strength. It's brought a lot of rain and not all the wind has finished yet, there's still a severe weather warning out.

Tropical Cyclone Lua off the WA coast is currently moving away from the coast but in the process of curving around and moving back towards the Pilbara. It's current motion is taking it into an area of higher vertical wind shear, however as the steering shifts it back towards the coast the vertical wind shear along its track will be declining. A cyclone watch has been issued for the coast from Mardie to Cape Leveque. TC Lua is expected to intensify to a cat 3 over the next two days. At this stage the likely coastal crossing point will be around Port Hedland.


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