106 replies to this topic

[tropicbreeze]

The Australian Tropical Cyclone season has got off to a flying start with number 1 in the Indian Ocean - TC Alenga. Currently Cat. 3 but expected to weaken and dissipate before reaching the WA coast. One likely side effect may be to draw down the monsoon trough which is somewhere over Indonesia at the moment.

[aussiearoids]

:blink:uh oh , still dozens of houses with scaffolding up , and more. being demolished everyday

[peachy]

Don't put the mokkas on us yet Zig, I think we have had our share of natural disasters this year.
Peachy

[tropicbreeze]

Aussiearoids, hopefully they're rebuilding taking advantage of the benefit of hindsight.

Peachy, nothing wrong with keeping yourself informed.

TC Alenga is now down to cat. 1. Strong vertical wind shear has virtually cut its head off. By morning it'll just be a tropical low.

The name Alenga would have come from TCWC La Reunion, the first Australian name for this season is Fina.

[Tyrone]

May get some thunderstorms from the system on Monday. I must admit this one was early and a long way south. If the high wasn't beneath it to rip it apart, it was heading straight for Carnarvon.

[ariscott]

might drag down the monsoon trough early??? here is hoping....

[tropicbreeze]

They're anticipating the monsoon trough being just off the coast by Saturday, largely thanks to TC Alenga. Some of the modelling is suggesting formation of a low along it just to the north.

Weekly Tropical Climate Note
Issued on Tuesday 13 December 2011

Oceans warm around northern Australia
La Niña conditions remain in place over the Pacific Ocean, while oceans around northern Australia continue to warm. Forecast models surveyed by the Bureau suggest the La Niña event is likely to persist for the majority of the north Australian wet season. It is very unlikely that the current La Niña will be as strong as the La Niña event of last wet season.

Below average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and sub-surface temperatures persist across the tropical Pacific Ocean. The latest weekly data from the NINO3.4 region shows SSTs are 0.9 °C below normal. Oceans around northern Australia are generally 0.5 – 1 °C above normal away from the coast, with broad areas between 1 – 2 °C warmer than normal to the north and west of the continent. Cloudiness near the International Date Line continues to be below average.

The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has continued to steadily climb, with a 30-day SOI value of +16.8 to the 10th of December. This is the highest 30-day value since the spectacular decline of the previous La Niña in April / May (see SOI graph). The contributing pressure anomalies are +2.0 hPa at Tahiti and −0.7 hPa at Darwin. The monthly SOI for November was +13.8, the highest monthly value since April. The 5-month running mean (centred on September) was +9.1.

La Niña periods are typically associated with above average rainfall across northern Australia during the wet season, with an earlier monsoon onset in Darwin (which usually arrives around Christmas / New Year). Daytime temperatures are typically cooler from December onwards, and tropical cyclone activity is usually above average between November and April.
See the Bureau's ENSO Wrap-Up which includes a compilation of ENSO computer model predictions.

MJO influencing Australia's weather
Over the past week, a moderately strong Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) has moved into the Australian region, and as a response, conditions are getting wetter. The majority of climate models surveyed by the Bureau of Meteorology suggest that this MJO event will linger in Australian longitudes for the next week or two, but weaken in strength during this period.

The current MJO event spawned the first tropical cyclone for the Australian cyclone season, Severe Tropical Cyclone Alenga, which formed in the Indian Ocean last week.

The risk of tropical cyclone formation in the Australian region is likely to remain above average for most of December, with increased rainfall across northern Australia during this period.

There are early indications of the monsoon trough developing in the southern hemisphere, and as is typical for La Niña years, it is likely that the Top End will come under the influence of the monsoon before Christmas.
See the Bureau's MJO Monitoring for more information, including rainfall maps.

[tropicbreeze]

The monsoon is becoming active along the north coast now and two cyclones are expected to develop soon. One along the north coast near Darwin and the other off the east coast in the Coral Sea.

At this stage it appears the north coast one will most likely drift south west and impact the Kimberley coast, the east coast one may drift south east and not affect the mainland coast.


Tropical Cyclone Outlook

IDD10610
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory
Darwin Regional Forecasting Centre

Tropical Cyclone 3 day Outlook for Northern Region, including the Gulf of Carpentaria

Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 2:15 pm CST Monday 19 December 2011

Valid until the end of Thursday.

Existing Cyclones in the Northern Region and Gulf of Carpentaria:
Nil.

Potential Cyclones:
There are no significant tropical lows in the Region. A weak monsoon trough has developed near the north coast of the Top End, and a low pressure system is expected to form in the next two to three days. This low may develop further as the monsoon trough moves north into the Arafura Sea.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone being in the Northern region on:
Tuesday: Very low.
Wednesday: Low.
Thursday: Moderate.


Tropical Cyclone 3-day outlook for The Coral Sea

IDQ10810
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Brisbane

Tropical Cyclone 3-day outlook for The Coral Sea
Issued at 1:45pm EST on Monday the 19th of December 2011 and valid until end of Thursday

Existing Cyclones in the Eastern Region:
Nil.

Potential Cyclones:
A low situated southeast of Papua New Guinea is moving in a south-southwesterly direction and is expected to develop further over the next couple of days. The low is expected to remain offshore and not affect the Queensland coast.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:

Tuesday: Low
Wednesday:High
Thursday: High

[ariscott]

Are you home, Zig??? Crazy weather today... home with a sick one.... raining, thunder.... you name it. I hope you can come home before thursday??

[tropicbreeze]

Ari, unfortunately I've still got another 2 weeks down here. Been watching the weather cl;osely, seems to have been some good rain. Did a lot of planting before I left so it all should be taking well. All the palms you gave me are in the ground too.

Bit worried about that low pressure developing off the north coast. BOM is now expecting it to be a cyclone by Friday. GFS has it skirting the coast just clear of Darwin, moving into the Joseph Bonaparte Gulf and making landfall in the Kimberley.. They aso have it continuing down the west coast as a low.. Should be a lot of rain but let's hope that is all.

[ariscott]

sounds good, Zig... I hope it only brings rain too... no wind!!!

[ariscott]

Cyclone watch has been issued at 5pm today.... Hhhmm.... time to do clean up around the place...

[Tyrone]

All the best up there guys.

[tropicbreeze]

TC Fina has formed in the Coral Sea and id moving south between Australia and New Caledonia. It's running into high wind shear and is likely to be short lived. The Bureau of Meteorology isn't expecting it to intensify beyond Cat. 1. It should dissipate as a tropical cyclone within a day or so.

The low off the north coast is expected to develop into TC Grant Friday night or Saturday morning. The models are virtually in disarray on this one, some are favouring a move to the east, others are indicating a move to the west. There's difficulty in working out exactly where the Low Level Centre of Circulation is at the moment.

It's sort of a bit like the TC Carlos scenario earlier this year, except this system is off the coast. The sea surface temps are over 30 degrees. And no one can say where this thing is going. I'd hate to be a forecaster here, it's the worst region in the world for predicting cyclones and all eyes are on them.

[ariscott]

Well, a lot of model has predicted it to be small and nasty... Did you follow on NAC? I am actually rather nervous with this one. It hasn't really moved in the last 24 hours and just wobbled in the region. The more it wobbles, the more like it intensifies before it actually goes anywhere... I guess there is nothing we can do but wait.

[tropicbreeze]

It's got me a bit rattled too, Ari. The models are still a bit all over the place. But while there's no steering it's all one big question mark. What I don't like is that it seems to be shifting from a Carlos scenario to a Tracy scenario. EC has it drifting southwest and then swinging in southeast directly into Darwin as a Cat 3 - 4. Exactly how Tracy came in, just the dates will be a few days out. I'm still stuck in Melbourne until whatever happens, or doesn't happen. I'd feel a lot better if I was there to minimise any effects.

[tropicbreeze]

The low appears to be edging westwards, but there's still no clear indication of where it's going to end up. This is the concluding part of the latest TC bulletin:

"The[re] has been an increase in the number of models promoting a track to the SE in the 0000z cohort of forecasts. However the candidate LLC centre is further west than those initialised in these runs. Given the lack of any consistency between models, and between successive model runs, a conservative approach continues to be followed in forecast policy. The possibility remains that the verifying solution will be different again to that which is suggested by the current model scenarios."

Translated into plain English, that says, "We don't have a bloody clue!"

But it appears that the monsoonal flow itself is currently creating some shear in the mid levels and not allowing the column to form properly. This and the lack of steering is what's delaying matters. My gut feeling is that it'll get caught up in an easterly flow and end up further east of Darwin and remain a weaker system. I feel better about it today than yesterday. Fingers crossed!

[ariscott]

yeah.... me too.... it will continue west I think. But then, whether it does a U-turn ala Helen.. we shall wait and see. At the moment, we can breathe a bit easier...

[tropicbreeze]

The situation keeps changing and the weather bureau has revised it's projected track of the system.

This is track map 12


And the latest, track map 13. A fair bit of difference.


The GFS model still persists with a track crossing the Gove Peninsula, intensifying in the Gulf of Carpentaria, and crossing the base of Cape York Peninsula into the Coral Sea. The EC model appears to have the closest track to the one that the weather bureau is following, going south over the Tiwis and then east. Close, but staying east of Darwin.

There's also another tropical disturbance starting up in the Indian Ocean about 175 kilometres south west of the Cocos Islands. Likely the next system to develop.

[ariscott]

You'd better come home, Zig.....

[_Wal]

This could be nasty...better batten down the hatches...

[tropicbreeze]

TC Grant formed off the coast in the early hours this morning. It's still wobbling about but the weather bureau expects it to start following a more direct track soon. Although, they've been saying that for a few days.

Dundee Beach (west of Darwin) to Milingimbi (central Arnhem Land coast) is under cyclone warning (gales expected within 24 hours).


Tie those pot plants down Ari. Friends are going to check my place out for me. Merry Christmas, at least it's now pretty unlikely to be another Tracy.

[tropicbreeze]

TC Grant made its move down the Cobourg Peninsula and is currently in the eastern Van Dieman Gulf as a cat. 2 cyclone. At this stage it should cross back over land and begin to weaken. It's heading straight for Jabiru now which has gone into lockdown. Then it should continue over land and re-emerge in the Gulf of Carpentaria. Like most areas up here now, the waters are very warm so re-intensification is expected. TC Grant should then cross the bottom of Cape York Peninsula and continue on into the Coral Sea. So it's not done by a long shot yet but hopefully its land interaction along the way will prevent it from from getting too strong.

A legacy of TC Grant should be a lesser likelihood of another cyclone forming in the area to the north east of Darwin this season. A lot of the energy has been taken out of the ocean there and any cyclone trying to develop or pass through will get "starved".

The earlier disturbance south west of the Cocos Islands in the Indian Ocean has dissipated. Probably because of another disturbance north of the equator from it. It seems to be the stronger and has absorbed the surface flows into itself.

[tropicbreeze]

Ex TC Grant is continuing to cause some havoc inland. Looking at the weather radar it seems to be down closer to Katherine than where the bureau places it. Seems to be going further southwards/westwards than anticipated and bringing a lot of heavy rain. There's a severe weather warning out:

IDD20040
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology Northern Territory
WARNING

SEVERE WEATHER WARNING
for Damaging Winds and Heavy Rainfall.
for people in the Darwin-Daly and Arnhem Districts
Issued at 5:00 am CST Tuesday 27 December 2011

Synoptic Situation: At 3:30 am CST, a Tropical Low [ex-Tropical Cyclone GRANT]
997 hPa was located over land near latitude 13.2S, longitude 133.0E, about 230
kilometres east southeast of Darwin. It is currently moving slowly south
southeast, but is expected to turn towards the east and move across the Top End
to the Gulf of Carpentaria over the next day or so.

Damaging wind gusts up to 100km/h are expected within 120 km of the centre
during today. Heavy to Very heavy rain currently falling over the Darwin-Daly
and Arnhem Districts may lead to localised flooding and significant stream
rises. Rain and damaging winds are expected to gradualy ease over the western
Top End later today.

The Northern Territory Emergency Service advises that people should secure loose
outside objects and seek shelter when the conditions deteriorate. Driving
conditions may be hazardous - avoid flooded roads and watercourses.

The next warning is due to be issued by 11:00 am today

[Tyrone]

Glad to see it didn't hit Darwin. Was looking ominous earlier as it didn't want to steer anywhere clearly.

[tropicbreeze]

Yes, certainly good that Darwin was spared this time. The problem here is the steering. It was a fine balance between the northwest monsoonal flow and the south east continental flow. It was the continental flow that finally gave way. But ex Grant is a long way from over. At the moment it's causing a lot of flooding just north of Katherine. And the weather bureau has recommenced issuing warnings for it. Re-intensification is expected on Thursday over the Gulf of Carpentaria. Logically, it would cross Cape York Peninsula into the Coral Sea. Unless it keeps too far south and stays over land until high latitudes.

IDD20150
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this warning.

PRIORITY

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 33
Issued at 1:54 pm CST on Tuesday 27 December 2011

A Cyclone WATCH has been declared for a developing tropical low for coastal areas from Nhulunbuy to Numbalwar, including Groote Eylandt.

At 12:30 pm CST Ex-Tropical Cyclone Grant was estimated to be 95 kilometres south of Jabiru and 445 kilometres west southwest of Nhulunbuy and moving south southeast at 2 kilometres per hour.

Ex-tropical Cyclone Grant is expected to begin moving towards the east during Wednesday and is likely to move over the Gulf of Carpentaria on Thursday, where it may redevelop into a tropical cyclone. The system is expected to move steadily east across the Gulf of Carpentaria during Thursday and Friday.

GALES are not expected in coastal areas within the next 24 hours, however gales may develop later if the cyclone forms close to the coast.

HEAVY RAIN is expected to cause flooding of low lying areas over the Darwin-Daly, Arnhem and Roper-McArthur districts.

Tides will be HIGHER THAN NORMAL between Milingimbi and Groote Eylandt. Large waves may produce MINOR FLOODING of low-lying coastal areas.

The Territory Controller advises communities under Watch that now is the time to put together your emergency kit, clear your yards and balconies, and commence home shelter preparations.

Details of Ex-Tropical Cyclone Grant at 12:30 pm CST:

.Centre located near...... 13.5 degrees South 132.9 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 75 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the south southeast at 2 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 1000 hectoPascals

Please ensure that neighbours have heard and understood this message, particularly new arrivals or those who may not fully understand English.

The next advice will be issued by 5:00 pm CST Tuesday 27 December.

Now, there's an area of convection forming about 400 kilometres north west of the Cocos Islands. Something to keep an eye on for the near future.

[ariscott]

or it can do a U-turn at GOC and start heading west... which happened in the past

[tropicbreeze]

Ari, I'd say there's very little chance of an extreme about face. But I do remember one in the 90's (can't remember the name) that ran the north coast, crossed GOC and CYP, then continued to about Vanuatu. It turned back crossing CYP and GOC again, hit near Borroloola, crossed the bottom of the Top End, exited into JBG, and bumped its way down the west coast of WA. That was quite an epic journey.

Ex TC Grant has now moved over the Gulf of Carpentaria. Although the waters are very warm, 31 to 32 degrees, it's running into more wind shear which will hamper its redevelopment. But it's already done a lot of damage in the Top End, washing out bridges, derailed a freight train loaded with copper comcentrate, and washing cars (with people) off roads.

Floodwaters wreak damage on NT transport

Thursday, December 29, 2011 » 05:07am

Residents in the Northern Territory are being warned of crocodiles in their waterways, after rivers burst their banks, also wreaking damage to the state's transport network.

In an emergency message from the Northern Territory government, residents are being warned not to swim or wade in flood waters to avoid being confronted by the reptiles.

Heavy rain from ex-tropical Cyclone Grant has swollen the Cullen and Edith rivers to dangerous levels, flooding the Stuart Highway and damaging its bridges north of Katherine.

Northern Territory Chief Minister Paul Henderson has inspected the area from the air and says the water has caused significant structural damage to the road and rail network.

However, he says he hopes the major thoroughfare, which links Darwin to Katherine, will be reopened within the next 24 to 48 hours.

[tropicbreeze]

Ex TC Grant has now moved off into the Coral Sea but doesn't look like reintensifying in the near future. It may however do so nearer to New Caledonia.

The disturbance that was north west of the Cocos Islands moved off south westwards and has intensified into TC Benilde. It's outside the Australian region and unlikely to turn back this way.

So, things are beginning to quieten down a bit with the MJO weakening slightly as it moves off into the Pacific Ocean.

[tropicbreeze]

At this stage a weak tropical low is developing off the WA coast and moving southwards towards the Pilbara. There's a possibility it could develop into a tropical cyclone late Wednesday or Thursday. Today another tropical low is expected to form a bit further west of this one along the monsoon trough line. It's expected to move eastwards over the next few days.

[ariscott]

As long as it brings monsoon with it.... geez... sick and tired of this heat....

[tropicbreeze]

Ari, it appears we'll be getting our wet season back in a couple of days time, even if only for a short time.

Tropical Cyclone Heidi formed off the WA coast in the early hours of this morning. The models aren't all in agreement and vary from Heidi moving southwards to westwards. But it's running into stronger wind shear so shouldn't get to severe levels regardless. The weather bureau is opting for an initial southward track.

IDW24100
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 6
Issued at 6:20 am WST on Wednesday 11 January 2012

A Cyclone WARNING is now current for coastal areas from Sandfire to Mardie,
including Port Hedland, Roebourne, Karratha and Dampier, including the towns of
Port Hedland and Karratha.

At 5:00 am WST Tropical Cyclone Heidi, Category 1 was estimated to be
250 kilometres north of Port Hedland and
370 kilometres northeast of Karratha and
moving south at 20 kilometres per hour towards the coast.

Tropical Cyclone Heidi is moving in a southerly direction towards the Pilbara
coast, and is expected to produce gales with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour
in coastal areas from Sandfire Roadhouse to Port Hedland this morning,
extending west during the day, possibly as far as Mardie. Gusts could increase
to 120 kilometres per hour close to the centre as it crosses the coast.

Heidi is currently a Category 1 system and should maintain intensity until it
reaches the coast, after which it should weaken.

The strongest winds and heaviest rainfall is expected to the east and south of
the system. Rainfall totals in excess of 100mm are possible across the central
and eastern Pilbara with isolated heavier falls near the coast. Refer to Flood
Advices for further details.

Tides between Pardoo and Whim Creek are likely to rise above the normal high
tide mark with very rough seas and flooding of low-lying coastal areas. Tides
elsewhere in the Pilbara should also be higher than normal.


BLUE ALERT: People in or near coastal and island communities between Pardoo and
Mardie, including the communities of Pardoo, Port Hedland, South Hedland, Whim
Creek, Roebourne, Pt Samson, Karratha, Dampier and Mardie need to prepare for
cyclonic weather and organise an emergency kit including first aid kit, torch,
portable radio, spare batteries, food and water.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Heidi at 5:00 am WST:
.Centre located near...... 18.1 degrees South 119.0 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 55 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the south at 20 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 120 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 1
.Central pressure......... 988 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 9:00 am WST Wednesday 11 January.

[tropicbreeze]

TC Heidi is intensifying more rapidly than predicted by the models. It's still on a southerly track and expected to be a direct hit on Port Hedland as a cat. 2

IDW24100
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 8
Issued at 12:07 pm WST on Wednesday 11 January 2012

A Cyclone WARNING is now current for coastal areas from Sandfire Roadhouse to Mardie, including Port Hedland, Roebourne, Karratha and Dampier.

At 11:00 am WST Tropical Cyclone Heidi, Category 1 was estimated to be 185 kilometres north northeast of Port Hedland and 325 kilometres northeast of Karratha and moving south at 15 kilometres per hour towards the coast.

Tropical Cyclone Heidi is intensifiying as it continues its southward track towards the Pilbara coast. Gales with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour are likely to develop in coastal areas from Sandfire Roadhouse to Whim Creek including Port Hedland this afternoon. Destructive winds with gusts to 155 kilometres per hour are possible overnight close to the cyclone centre between Whim Creek and Pardoo. Gales with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour may extend west to Dampier and possibly as far as Mardie overnight if the cyclone takes a more southwest track, and in the adjacent parts of the central Pilbara.

The heaviest rainfall is expected to the east and south of the system. Rainfall totals of 100-250mm are possible across the central and eastern Pilbara. Refer to Flood Advices for further details.

Residents in and near Port Hedland and east to Wallal are specifically warned of the potential of a DANGEROUS STORM TIDE as the cyclone centre crosses the coast overnight. Tides are likely to rise significantly above the normal high tide mark with dangerous flooding of low-lying areas. Tides elsewhere in the Pilbara should also be higher than normal.


YELLOW ALERT: People in or near coastal and island communities between Pardoo and Whim Creek, including the communities of Pardoo, Port Hedland, South Hedland, and Whim Creek need to take action and get ready to shelter from a cyclone.

BLUE ALERT: People in or near coastal and island communities between Whim Creek and Mardie, including the communities of Roebourne, Pt Samson, Karratha, Dampier and Mardie need to prepare for cyclonic weather and organise an emergency kit including first aid kit, torch, portable radio, spare batteries, food and water.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Heidi at 11:00 am WST:
.Centre located near...... 18.7 degrees South 119.1 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 35 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the south at 15 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 120 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 1
.Central pressure......... 990 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 3:00 pm WST Wednesday 11 January.

[tropicbreeze]

TC Heidi has already reached cat 2 and is still intensifying. The track is swinging slightly west of south but will still be so close to Port Hedland that it won't really matter. Landfall is expected within the next 12 hours.

[tropicbreeze]

TC Heidi crossed the coast 4:30AM this morning local time. It had intensified to a high end cat 2 but now inland is weakening, although still a cat 2. By afternoon it should have weakened below cyclone strength due to land interaction and increasing wind shear.

[tropicbreeze]

TC Heidi ran itself out overnight but heavy rain continues. Another two lows have formed off the WA coast. The one close to Port Hedland isn't expected to develop into a cyclone as it's too close to land but is still likely to bring strong winds and heavy rains to that area. The other is further out from the coast and is not expected to develop into a cyclone within the next 3 days.

[tropicbreeze]

The monsoon (at long last) is expected to re-develop along the north coast over the weekend. A low is also expected to start to develop along it and possibly become a cyclone during the next week. Probability is that it may slip to the south west and become a problem for WA, but still early days.

Day before yesterday I drove down to Katherine and saw some of the damage wreaked by TC Grant last month. It derailed a freight train on the Edith River bridge carrying copper ore from the mines to Darwin. Just down stream of that are 2 highway bridges. The ore carrying wagons are not exactly light weight metal but they were wrapped around the bridge pylons, doubled up. One pylon had 2 wagons, the others seemed to have only managed one each. They're flat out repairing the rail bridge and the approaches. Must be waiting for the dry season before recovering the remains of the wagons. Couldn't stop to get a photo, they were also repairing the road bridges and you couldn't stop within a kilometre of them. You could see under the high level road bridge and the rail bridge. All the road traffic was diverted onto the low level road bridge so you couldn't see what was under it.

[tropicbreeze]

The monsoon trough has redeveloped and is bringing more rain and slightly cooler weather (some of the time). That'll certainly keep Ari happy

Chances for the development of a cyclone during the coming week are increasing for the northern and western regions.

Tropical Cyclone 3 day Outlook for Northern Region, including the Gulf of Carpentaria

Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 2:30 pm CST Saturday 21 January 2012
Valid until the end of Tuesday.

Existing Cyclones in the Northern Region and Gulf of Carpentaria: Nil.

Potential Cyclones:
The monsoon trough is becoming more active over the Timor and Arafura Seas and will move slowly south over the weekend. A weak low pressure system has formed in the northwest Gulf of Carpanteria, along the trough, and is expected to move west toward the Timor Sea over the next few days and may develop further.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone being in the Northern region on:
Sunday: Very Low.
Monday: Low.
Tuesday: Moderate.

[tropicbreeze]

There's a low pressure currently off the north east coast of the Northern Territory but it's expected to move inland lessening its chances of developing into a cyclone within the short term. A low is expected to develop in the monsoon trough off the WA coast and become a cyclone by Wednesday. At this stage it's still unsure which way it will go.

[tropicbreeze]

ABC Online
Bureau says moderate chance of cyclone
By Kristy O'Brien

Updated January 23, 2012 11:24:03
Darwin hit by torrential rain. Whether a cyclone forms or not the rain is expected to return to the Top End in the coming days. (ABC)

The Bureau of Meteorology says there is a moderate chance a cyclone will develop off the Northern Territory coast tomorrow night or Wednesday.

Senior Forecaster Angeline Prasad says a tropical low is hovering around the North East Coast near the Goulbourn Islands.

She says heavy falls are expected later today and there's a chance of damaging wind gusts off the North Coast.

"It's slowly ramping up, we've got good convection near McClure Island and Goulbourn island and winds are starting to pick up as well over the North Coastal waters," Ms Prasad said.

"So we're expecting ... about 15 to 20 knots today, possibly increasing to 25 knots off shore."