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Australian Tropical Cyclone Season 2011/12 has started

107 posts in this topic

Actually glad I am wrong.... Zig. This might be the monsoon that I have been waiting for.... I know you ask me in the 'other' forum what happened if it stops... I found that if I plant during monsoon, they have time to set because there is no heat. And I don't have to water them for a week or so. They get established better and quicker. In the dry season, they get dry and horrible... and by the time the build up arrives, it stressed them up even further before the wet sets in.

I don't have as much canopy as you though...

Regards, Ari :)

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TC Lua Cat 2 now and looks like crossing as a strong cat 4 south of Broome.

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Ari, I thought that being montane species the dry season might be a bit much for them. Still, there's one way to find out. I got much more rain yesterday (in 24 hours) than I did for the whole of February. You can't pick it.

TC Lau has completed its turn around and is now heading for the Pilbara coast. It's expected to cross the coast in 48 hours near Pardoo, close to Port Hedland. Currently it's experiencing some vertical wind shear but this is being countered by good outflow. Later along its track towards the coast vertical wind shear will begin to increase but this will probably be too late to weaken it before impact with land, at which stage it should be a cat 4.

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montane species??? they should be right under the canopy, Zig. If my licuala don't mind it, they should be right too. Besides other areca does well at my place... and so does pinangas.

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Ari, I just thought those two were a bit more sensitive to heat and dry air. I've been doing some planting as well. But the Verschaffeltia I've left until drier times. Wherever I dig a hole now it's full of water. No need to water anything in.

TC Lua has made it to cat 3 intensity and will peak in 18 to 30 hours still at cat 3. It's projected track will still take it close Pardoo and then as a cat 2 well inland past Marble Bar and Newman. It should dissipate as a tropical cyclone before Meekatharra.

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TC Lua is expected to impact the coast near Pardoo in just under 24 hours and maintain close to cat 3 intensity as far inland as Marble Bar.

The tropical low that had been crossing the base of the NT Top End from Joseph Bonaparte Gulf is expected to move into the Gulf of Carpentaria in the next couple of days with a good probability of developing into a tropical cyclone.

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The Bureau of Meteorology has been waivering between a maximum strength of cat 3 and cat 4 with alternate track forecasts showing one figure and the next showing the other. However, overnight it has reached cat 4 level, and is still likely to strengthen. The forecast track takes it a little further east than previously indicated bringing it closer to Wallal rather than Pardoo. This also takes it a little further away from Marble Bar, and still cat 1 by the time it reaches Newman.

The tropical low in the Gulf of Carpentaria is intensifying with a possibility of developing into a cyclone within 24 to 48 hours. It's expected to track in an arc to the north west bringing it to the middle of the Gulf with high sea surface temperatures greater than 30 degrees. Steering from a ridge moving across the centre of the continent may keep it moving north west for a while.

Satellite cloud image of Australia showing the cloud mass over both systems.

post-4226-021438900 1331939361_thumb.jpg

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IDW24100

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology

Western Australia

Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: Transmitters serving the area between Port Hedland and Bidyadanga are requested to USE the Standard Emergency Warning Signal before broadcasting the following warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 22

Issued at 9:13 am WST on Saturday 17 March 2012

A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Cape Leveque to Dampier, including Port Hedland, Karratha, Dampier and Broome, as well as inland parts of the east Pilbara and far west Kimberley, including Telfer, Newman and Jigalong, the eastern Gascoyne, far northern Goldfields and the far western Interior including Three Rivers and Wiluna.

A Cyclone WATCH is current for parts of the eastern Gascoyne and the northern Goldfields including Meekatharra and Leinster.

At 8:00 am WST Severe Tropical Cyclone Lua, Category 4 was estimated to be 215 kilometres north northeast of Port Hedland 290 kilometres west southwest of Broome moving southeast at 23 kilometres per hour.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Lua is intensifying as it moves steadily towards the east Pilbara coast, with an expected crossing during Saturday afternoon in the vicinity of Pardoo Station.

Gales are occurring in coastal areas between Whim Creek and Bidyadanga including Port Hedland, and may extending to adjacent inland areas and north to Cape Leveque including Broome, and possibly west to Dampier later this morning.

Destructive winds to 150 kilometres per hour are possible between Port Hedland and Bidyadanga from late this morning extending to the inland eastern Pilbara later in the day. Very Destructive winds to 270 kilometres per hour are forecast near the cyclone centre as it crosses the coast.

As the cyclone moves further inland, gales should reach the eastern Gascoyne areas, adjacent Interior and far northern Goldfields on Sunday morning.

Heavy rainfall is expected in coastal and inland parts of the east Pilbara, west Kimberley extending into the eastern Gascoyne, western Interior and northern Goldfields later on Saturday and during Sunday.

Residents of the east Pilbara and 80 Mile Beach area, east of but NOT including Port Hedland, are specifically warned of the very dangerous storm tide expected this afternoon. Tides are likely to rise significantly above the normal high tide mark with damaging waves and very dangerous flooding.

Heavy surf conditions are also expected along the west Kimberley coast during Saturday.

FESA-State Emergency Service advises of the following community alerts:

RED ALERT: People in coastal communities between Bidyadanga and Port Hedland, including Wallal, 80 Mile Beach, Sandfire, Pardoo, Port Hedland and South Hedland need to go to shelter immediately.

YELLOW ALERT: People in remaining communities between Broome and Whim Creek including Broome, Telfer, Nullagine, Warralong, Yande Yarra, Marble Bar and adjacent pastoral and mining leases need to take action and get ready to shelter from a cyclone.

BLUE ALERT: People in coastal communities between Whim Creek and Dampier including Karratha, Dampier, Roebourne, Wickham and Point Samson as well as inland communities including Woodie Woodie, Newman and Jigalong and surrounding pastoral and mining leases need to prepare for cyclonic weather and organise an emergency kit including first aid kit, torch, portable radio, spare batteries, food and water.

Remaining communities between Broome and Cape Leveque and in the inland eastern Pilbara, east Gascoyne and western Interior should listen for the next advice.

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Lua at 8:00 am WST:

.Centre located near...... 18.6 degrees South 119.6 degrees East

.Location accuracy........ within 20 kilometres

.Recent movement.......... towards the southeast at 23 kilometres per hour

.Wind gusts near centre... 250 kilometres per hour and INTENSIFYING

.Severity category........ 4

.Central pressure......... 932 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 12:00 pm WST Saturday 17 March.

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The eye of Severe Tropical Cyclone Lua has now virtually crossed the coast. It's expected to have tracked directly south down to about Wiluna by Sunday afternoon where it will have dissipated. It looks like Pardoo came within the western side of the eye.

The tropical low in the Gulf of Carpentaria moved off the coast slightly over land but is now curving northwards and expected to swing westwards bringing it over water again. It should develop into a tropical cyclone Monday morning.

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Just before dawn this morning Tropical Cyclone Lua by passed Newman as a cat 1 system. It should continue southwards and pass over Wiluna later today as a tropical low.

The tropical low in the Gulf of Carpentaria is moving westwards but should soon swing north west, being steered by a ridge building over the centre of the continent. There's a cyclone warning out for the area from the NT/Qld border to Cape Keerweer and a cyclone watch extending to past Port McArthur. The low is expected to develop into a tropical cyclone tomorrow morning.

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Ex Tropical Cyclone Lua has now transitioned into the tropical low and will have passed Wiluna. Strong winds are still forecast in its path.

The tropical low in the Gulf of Carpentaria is now tracking north west towards the centre of the Gulf. It's still expected to develop into a tropical cyclone in the early hours of tomorrow - TC Mitchell. It's certainly been a long time, and a long way, coming. However, it's expected to swing south west later and cross the coast near Burketown early Tuesday morning.

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The tropical low in the Gulf of Carpentaria has done an about face and is heading over land across the base of Cape York Peninsula. At this stage there is very little likelihood it will develop into a tropical cyclone. It is however producing strong winds.

The Madden Julian Oscillation is moving off into the Pacific Ocean so should lead to a quieter period in the weather for the tropical north.

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A low in the monsoon trough south of the Solomons is intensifying. It may develop into a tropical cyclone but at this stage isn't expected to come near the Qld coast.

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The low in the south Coral Sea finally moved south east over Vanuatu. It together with another low to its south have been causing all the rain in Fiji. This low is intensifying further with a high probability of becoming a tropical cyclone. However it's moving between Fiji and New Caledonia.

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The low near Fiji has now developed into Tropical Cyclone Daphne. It's heading west which takes it pretty well directly towards Fiji. At the moment it's a cat 1 system.

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It was predicted quite a while back that there'd be a very late season cyclone for Darwin. But the latter part of the wet season has turned into what seems more like a dry season, except that there is still some humidity around and the sun is still blazing hot.

However, finally on the horizon is the hint of a low pressure system developing between Papua New Guinea and Cape York Peninsula tomorrow. And with it a monsoon trough. The low is predicted to cross Cape York Peninsula, cross the Gulf of Carpentaria and move along the top of the Northern Territory by middle of next week. The Maddern Julian Oscillation is only approaching phase one now so there's no way it could coincide with this low pressure system (we're at phase 4).

A series of high pressure ridges along the bottom of the continent have been pushing a lot of dry air up this way making cyclone formation look very improbable. Although, we could do with the rain. The coming week will tell.

This is the Bureau of Meteorology take on the system for the next 3 days:

Potential Cyclones:

There are no significant tropical lows in the Region. Showers and storms increasing over the Top End next week due to a deep trough in the Coral Sea moving west, crossing Cape York Peninsula late in the weekend and moving into the Arafura Sea. A Tropical Low may form in the trough north of the Top End early next week.

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The low continues to move towards the Top End but there's probably not a lot around to help it develop much more. The Madden Julian Oscillation has rocketed through phase 1 and is most of the way through phase 2. I would doubt, though, that it will make it here (phase 4) before the low moves on. If they did manage to coincide here then it could stir up the weather again for a last time before the dry season officially sets in.

The weather bureau's current outlook:

Potential Cyclones:

A weak Tropical Low, 1006 hPa, is located in the western Arafura Sea well north of the Top End coast. The low is expected to move slowly west southwest during the next three days.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone being in the Northern Region on:

Friday: Very low,

Saturday: Low,

Sunday: Low.

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The tropical low is still hovering above the Top End but moving slowly south westwards. The Madden Julian Oscillation has moved into phase 3. But by the time it reaches here, at phase 4, the low will have moved off into the Indian Ocean taking with it any hope of a late resurgence of the wet season. The little bit of rain still happening across the tropical north will continue into next week and in just over a week the cyclone season will officially end.

The latest bureau outlook:

Potential Cyclones:

A weak Tropical Low, 1006 hPa, is located in the Timor Sea north of the Tiwi Islands. The low is expected to move slowly west southwest during the next three days and weaken.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone being in the Northern Region on:

Saturday: Very low,

Sunday: Very Low,

Monday: Very Low.

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The tropical low has moved slowly westwards and the Madden Julian Oscillation has sort of arrived. However, it's so weak that in reality it's no where. The official Australian cyclone season ends early next week. Looks like we're coming up to a pretty quiet finish to a quiet year.

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Thanks very much for all the trouble you go to , to keep us informed about possible dangers .

Much appreciated .

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Thanks Michael. Weather (particularly tropical weather) is one of my interests so I follow it closely during the season. Also keep an eye on the northern hemisphere during their season.

The cyclone/wet season is officially over. But Mother Nature didn't go by the calendar this year and called it quits a lot earlier.

Don't know whether the experts have done a post mortem on the Wet but I blame it's lack lustre performance on the Jetstream. The Jetstream generates the high and low pressure systems. The highs have been coming across very strong whilst it appears the highs in the Asian region were a lot weaker. This, in my opinion for our region, pushed the dry air masses from the higher latitudes northwards keeping the monsoon trough at bay most of the time. But so far I haven't been able to get a either yay or a nay on my theory.

Apart from occasional surges of cold dry air it should be reasonably quiet until about September.

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Weekly Tropical Climate Note

Issued on Tuesday 1 May 2012

The end of Australia's Wet and TC seasons

Both the north Australian wet season and the Australian tropical cyclone season are officially over. From 1 October, eight tropical cyclones were identified in the Australian region, slightly less than the seasonal average. Rainfall across northern Australia was generally average to above average during this period, with the exception of Queensland's South Peninsula and the NT's western Arnhem. The next burst of monsoon activity across northern Australia is not expected until the end of 2012.

Tropical Pacific remains ENSO-neutral

Across the Pacific, ENSO indicators remain in neutral levels. Climate models surveyed by the Bureau of Meteorology suggest that, although the Pacific Ocean will continue to warm over the coming months, a neutral ENSO state will persist at least into early winter. Some, but not all climate models note an increased risk of El Nino conditions evolving during winter or spring.

The 30-day Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) to 28 April was –7.7. The contributing atmospheric pressures were 0.4 hPa above normal at Tahiti and 1.3 hPa above normal at Darwin. The sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly in the NINO3.4 region has warmed further over the past week to 0.0 ºC, its warmest value since July 2011. Moreover, this is the first week since May 2010 that SSTs across the entire equatorial Pacific are average or above average.

See the Bureau's ENSO Wrap-Up which includes a compilation of ENSO computer model predictions.

May 2012: a transitional month

The Madden-Julian Oscillation has become weak and erratic over the past week. Forecast models predict the MJO will not contribute significantly to tropical convection for the most part of May.

Over the next few days, temperature and humidity levels are expected to increase across northern Australia as winds turn east-northeasterly. Showers and storms will prevail over Cape York Peninsula and the eastern Top End. Temperatures in central Australia will experience a slight warming with a cool change expected later this week. The cool, dry and possibly gusty change should reach the far north by the end of the week.

Across the wide tropics, the focus of tropical activity will gradually shift to the northern hemisphere, leading eventually to the onset of both Asian summer monsoon branches: the North West Monsoon (NWM) in the Indian Ocean and the East Asian Monsoon (EAM) in the Pacific Ocean. Convection and tropical cyclone activity is expected to increase over the next few weeks around the equator, with the first tropical cyclone already named over the South China Sea in mid-March (tropical cyclone Pakhar).

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Whilst the season may have officially ended a low pressure system has been developing to the north of Australia. An earlier report from JTWC:

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 5.0S

126.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.5S 126.2E, APPROXIMATELY 545 NM NORTH-

NORTHWEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY

SHOWS PERSISTENT CENTRAL CONVECTION WITH DEEP BANDING OVER THE

WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A

051259Z AMSU IMAGE DEPICTS THE DEEP BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC

FROM THE WEST WITH MUCH WEAKER AND FRAGMENTED BANDS FEEDING IN FROM

THE EAST. A RECENT SHIP OBSERVATION IN THE AREA INDICATES 1006 MB

AND 25 KNOTS. THE 051200Z PGTW UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A POINT

SOURCE OF DIFFLUENCE APPROXIMATELY 5 DEGREES TO THE EAST OF THE

LLCC. THIS IS PROVIDING FOR GOOD OUTFLOW IN BOTH THE EQUATORWARD

AND POLEWARD DIRECTIONS AND KEEPING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR LIGHT (05-

10 KNOTS). SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA ARE ABOVE 30

DEGREES CELSIUS, HIGHLY CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT.

NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES INTENSITY DEVELOPMENT TO REACH

WARNING CRITERIA (35 KNOTS) WITHIN THE 36-48 HOUR TIMEFRAME.

HOWEVER, DUE TO THE FAVORABLE UPPER- AND LOWER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENTS,

THAT TIMEFRAME MAY BECOME ACCELERATED AS THE NEXT MODEL RUNS COME

IN. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 22 TO 27

KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB.

THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE

WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM

Monday (7th May) it had developed into a weak tropical cyclone:

071500Z POSITION NEAR 8.3S 129.8E.

TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 270 NM NORTH-

NORTHWEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT

13 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE

IMAGERY SHOWS TC 19S HAS WEAKENED SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE PAST 12 HOURS

AND NOW HAS MINIMAL ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. ADDITIONALLY, A

071110Z SSMIS DEPICTS A VERY WEAK, FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL

CIRCULATION CENTER, FROM WHICH THE INITIAL POSITION WAS BASED. THE

INITIAL INTENSITY WAS ON THE LOWER SIDE OF THE KNES AND PGTW 25 TO

35 KNOT DVORAK ESTIMATES BECAUSE OF THE WEAK CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE IN

MICROWAVE IMAGERY. TC 19S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN UNDER

HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, BUT COULD POTENTIALLY REDEVELOP AS IT

TRACKS UNDER THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS TO THE SOUTH. THIS IS THE

FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER.

THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071200Z IS 10 FEET.//

Tuesday (today) it had weakened below TC strength but JTWC still give it a possibility of re-intensifying.

ABIO10 PGTW 081230

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN

/REISSUED/081230Z-081800ZMAY2012//

RMKS/

B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:

(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS OF TC 19S) HAS PERSISTED

NEAR 9.1S 129.2E, APPROXIMATELY 220 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF DARWIN,

AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS FLARING

CONVECTION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, WITH AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL

CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) OBSERVED BETWEEN CONVECTIVE CYCLES. A

080715Z SSMI IMAGE DEPICTS FRAGMENTED WEAK BANDING, WITH THE DEEPEST

CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC. A 080316Z OSCAT

PASS SHOWS AN ELONGATED AREA OF SHARP TROUGHING STRETCHING ALONG THE

8S LATITUDE LINE, WITH MAXIMUM WIND SPEEDS OF 30-35 KNOTS NEAR 129E

LONGITUDE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THIS AREA IS JUST

EQUATORWARD OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE AXIS, WITH APPROXIMATELY 15-

20 KTS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). AS THE RECENT MOVEMENT HAS HAD

A MORE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT (TOWARDS THE RIDGE AXIS), THE VWS HAS

RELAXED SLIGHTLY AND MAY CONTINUE TO DO SO IF THIS MOTION PERSISTS.

NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT REGENERATION OF TC 19S IS

POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY IF THE SOUTHWARD MOTION CONTINUES. MAXIMUM

SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA

LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. DUE TO THE CURRENT

MOTION AND RELAXING SHEAR, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A

SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.

However, it's moving more westwards and the Bureau of Meteorology gives the possibility of TC formation in the Northern Region (Darwin) as low:

IDD10610

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology, Northern Territory, Darwin Regional Forecasting Centre

Tropical Cyclone 3 day Outlook for Northern Region, including the Gulf of Carpentaria

Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN

at 2:20 pm CST Tuesday 8 May 2012

Valid until the end of Friday.

Existing Cyclones in the Northern Region and Gulf of Carpentaria:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:

A Tropical Low, 1002 hPa, is located in the Banda Sea, near 7.8S 129.2E, about 400 kilometres east northeast of Dili. The low is expected to move slowly southwest on Wednesday and Thursday, close to or over the island of Timor, then move steadily west later in the week. There is a possibility that the low could take a more southward track into the northern Timor Sea before turning west, away from the northern region. If the low takes a more southward track, the risk of tropical cyclone development late Wednesday or early Thursday would increase slightly.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone being in the Northern Region on:

Wednesday: low,

Thursday: low,

Friday: very low.

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Posted in wrong thread sorry

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The weather bureau continues to down play the tropical low near Timor, possibly because they don't expect it to impact our north coast. Although, presently there is some rain around from the system anyway (coincidentally, it just started raining here now).

JTWC, however, place the possibility of it redeveloping into a tropical cyclone as high within the next 24 hours.

WTXS21 PGTW 082030

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS OF TC 19S) PREVIOUSLY

LOCATED NEAR 9.0S 129.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.4S 128.9E,

APPROXIMATELY 215 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED

INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS BANDING CONVECTION PERSISTING

OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, WITH A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION

CENTER (LLCC). A 081540Z OSCAT PASS INDICATED WINDS BETWEEN 20 TO 25

KNOTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY WITH STRONGER WINDS (30 KNOTS)

FURTHER TO THE SOUTH. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LLCC

REMAINS EQUATORWARD OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WITH LOW TO MODERATE

LEVELS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) (10 TO 15 KNOTS) ENHANCING

POLEWARD VENTILATION. AS THE LLCC APPROACHES THE RIDGE AXIS,

DECREASING VWS AND INCREASING VENTILATION WILL LIKELY CAUSE THE

REMNANTS OF TC 19S TO REGENERATE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM

SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 32 KNOTS, BASED ON AN

IMPROVING CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE IN THE ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY.

MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. BASED ON

THE DEEP BANDING CONVECTION PERSISTING, GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND

FAVORABLE SURFACE CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A

SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.

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The weather bureau is determined to not be disturbed by any more northern weather for the rest of the dry season. But we're getting high humidity out of this and some areas are getting a bit of rain. Not bad for the dry season. Means night temperatures will stay up for a while yet.

Tropical Cyclone Outlook

IDD10610

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology

Northern Territory

Darwin Regional Forecasting Centre

Tropical Cyclone 3 day Outlook for Northern Region, including the Gulf of Carpentaria

Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN

at 2:20 pm CST Thursday 10 May 2012

Valid until the end of Sunday.

Existing Cyclones in the Northern Region and Gulf of Carpentaria: Nil.

Potential Cyclones:

A weak Tropical Low, 1002 hPa, is located in the northern Timor Sea, near 9.5S 125.8E, about 170 kilometres south of Dili. The low is no longer expected to develop into a Tropical Cyclone in the Northern Region and is expected to move slowly west over the next 24-48 hours.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone being in the Northern Region on:

Friday: Very low,

Saturday: Very low.

Sunday: Very low.

There will be no further Tropical Cyclone 3 Day Outlooks for the Northern Region until November 1st, 2012. (My emphasis)

JTWC is still on the case, but has down graded the potential of this system to medium.

ABIO10 PGTW 091800

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN

/091800Z-101800ZMAY2012//

2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.

B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS OF TC 19S) PREVIOUSLY

LOCATED NEAR 9.0S 129.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.0S 126.9E,

APPROXIMATELY 270 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. RECENT

ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY (EIR) SHOWS A SUBSTANTIAL

DEGRADATION OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND

ASSOCIATED CONVECTION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE SYSTEM HAS

STRUGGLED TO ORGANIZE, LIKELY DO TO SURFACE INTERACTION WITH ISLANDS

IN THE AREA. ADDITIONALLY, AN ANIMATED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER LOOP

SHOWS THAT A RIBBON OF DRIER AIR HAS WRAPPED AROUND THE NORTHERN AND

EASTERN PERIPHERIES OF THE LLCC, WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE EIR.

THE LATEST WIND SPEED ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES ARE 25 KNOTS OR

LESS. RECENT SCATTEROMETRY PASSES HAVE HAD ONLY PARTIAL COVERAGE,

HOWEVER THIS LIMITED DATA SUPPORTS THE DVORAK ESTIMATES ABOVE.

DESPITE THE POOR ORGANIZATION, THIS SYSTEM MAINTAINS A STRONG

VORTICITY SIGNATURE, MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF 15-20

KTS, FAVORABLE SST (28 DEGREES C), AND FAIR UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE.

NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST REGENERATION IS

POSSIBLE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25

KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB.

DUE TO THE LACK OF ORGANIZATION AND THE LOSS OF CENTRAL DEEP

CONVECTION, THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL

CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.

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