42 replies to this topic

[gsytch]

We have had quite a bit of warmth lately. After a chilly rainfall and 50's on Monday, and a chilly 44F at my house Tues morning - the coldest yet - it warmed to near 80F since then, with near 80-F to the low 80's expected thru Thursday. The week before was very similar except the one night chill was barely 50F. Sunny, breezy, not much rain since Halloween. The warmer it stays the more nervous I get. I have not even covered my one shadehouse with plastic yet. Too warm. It is ready to go up and on in an hour though, just in case! I love it but I do not want all this luscious growth to get zapped! Greg i 81F New Port Richey!

[Ray Tampa]

The Arctic Oscillation is forecast to stay neutral to positive through months end. That means no persisent cold through the first 10 days of January. We could still have brief shots of cold air but no blocking over Greenland to force front after front into our area.

[gsytch]

I know. I saw. I have not even covered the shadehouse I usually do with plastic. Last year at this time we were heating, covering, scrambling and freezing. 1/2" rain today is the heaviest we've seen here in a month. I'm all for a mild winter - and when I get off for Xmas break on the 21st continued mild weather would be REALLY nice so I can get yard work done! I go back Jan 9th...Greg in New Port Richey

[Dave-Vero]

At the beach, the surfers are happy, too. A surf temperature of 71 degrees F for Cocoa Beach this late in December is pretty nice.

[Dakotafl]

Hopefully it stays this way through winter, Here in south brevard the lowest its been is 45f and two nights this month with lows in the 40s, plenty of 60s and even near 70, highs have stayed in the mid to upper 70s with only one day in the upper 60s. The plants are loving it, hopefully no freezes this year

Edited by Dakotafl, 11 December 2011 - 06:35 AM.

[Central Floridave]

3 inches of rain the past three days! The mango don't like it, but everything else does! Here is hoping it stays this way all winter! (although I would like to be able to turn my A/C off)

[Dakotafl]

3 inches of rain the past three days! The mango don't like it, but everything else does! Here is hoping it stays this way all winter! (although I would like to be able to turn my A/C off)

And La nina is supposed to be dry, Who makes up this stuff, overall its been a wet winter imo

[Ray Tampa]

3 inches of rain the past three days! The mango don't like it, but everything else does! Here is hoping it stays this way all winter! (although I would like to be able to turn my A/C off)

Dave, I've had nothing but the water coming out of the hose the last three days. For warm weather, I'll gladly hand water.

[Dakotafl]

3 inches of rain the past three days! The mango don't like it, but everything else does! Here is hoping it stays this way all winter! (although I would like to be able to turn my A/C off)

Dave, I've had nothing but the water coming out of the hose the last three days. For warm weather, I'll gladly hand water.

I second this, esspecially with the winters weve had

[Moose]

So far, so good with the warm weather patterns holding.

[Ray Tampa]

The pattern gets coooooold next week.

[gsytch]

I've seen conflicting reports as to cold or just below normal. I am not seeing the AO neg but it appears on the move. PLEEEEEEEASE do not move negative and hit us again like the past 2 years! I am seeing much growth on everything. My big Mango is in full bloom (a full month early) and THIS YEAR I'd like Mangoes! Fingers crossed...........

[gsytch]

So the ARCTIC INVASION is headed for Central Florida! I have seen reports of anything from a light freeze to upper 30's...a two day event. I knew it was too good to be true. The coldest has been my local BayNews9 which is usually spot on, calling for 35F for Tampa and 20's northern suburbs. That would be somewhere between 32-35F for me depending on the wind. I admit I am not prepared like usual. Any thoughts on how cold? Accuweather has 57/38 and Intellicast has 58/40.

[Dave-Vero]

National Weather Service has "below normal" for Jan. 5-9.

That near-freezing in the Tampa Bay area on Tuesday night works out to about 40 for us.

If Accuweather is correct, Tuesday night could be the coldest through their extended forecast period, ending January 13. If so, we would be well on our way to a mild winter.

[gsytch]

I know it is suppose to be short lived, but lord this punch will feel COLD! I hope it doesn't get any colder than predicted as it has been so warm.

[Jerry@TreeZoo]

The weather has been so warm this "winter" that the Amherstia in the Deerfield Beach Arboretum is blooming now. At least 3 months early.

[enigma99]

Good luck in Florida. Look at the speed and source of this arctic air. I wouldn't want to get in the way of this!



Depending on how it hits how far the jet goes, could be trouble

[Palmə häl′ik]

30s and 40s are for wimps
I'm on the look out for those mid to late February 'hard freezes'.
My plants can take the mid 30s and 40s no problem.

~Ray.

[Rusty on Pine Is.]

I have looked at the GFS for 4 weeks now, and although the trend fluctuates, and is less reliable each successive day in the outlook, it still trends for a 'basically' zonal flow through the middle of January...the Azores high does have a trend toward the NNE...but the model has displayed that for the last 8 weeks.

But with all of that, i have to jolt myself back to one salient point....the VERY BEST model of the AO and NAO only get it right 2 WEEKS OUT...well, sounds like the proverbial crap shoot to me.........


The sun's lowest angle was on Dec. 22 @ 0030 hrs, so everyday from that point it becomes stronger, and cold fronts are hopefully less damaging....

..one day at a time...yup, a crap shoot.

Rusty

[palmsOrl]

As of now, the forecasts are calling for what I would consider a "run of the mill" January cold front/arctic blast. A couple nights in the upper 30s is nothing to get too worried about. I will put all of the potted tropical palms in the greenhouse and throw a satellite dish heater on the Adonidia to keep it looking healthy.

[enigma99]

As of Jan 1, the Jet forecast is still the same, in fact models are now showing it slightly worse. As I predicted, it will be cold... NOAA is showing lows for the Orlando on Tuesday at 28F and Tampa in the upper 20s to around freezing depending on the location

Jacksonville will see two nights of hard freezes with temps possibly in the low 20s

Edited by enigma99, 01 January 2012 - 11:09 AM.

[Dave-Vero]

Natlional Weather Service's predictions for Tuesday night (actually Wednesday dawn) are looking worse. Maybe 29 at Orlando and Okeechobee, better on the Atlantic coast.

[PalmatierMeg]

Front moves in Monday p.m. Then down to low 40s. Lows Tues night/Wed morn dipping down to freezing. At our house we are down with acute bronchitis courtesy of our holiday trip to MD to visit grandsons. Hmmmm. Things could get ugly.

Anyway, tomorrow the lipsticks come indoors. Tues will be turn of other sensitives. By Fri temps may moderate to "normal". Then we'll see. At least my prayers for mild weather while we were gone were answered. So why show ingratitude?

Hey Ed (edric), can Dypsis sp Dwarf take 30-32F temps?

[gsytch]

Funny - the topic is is this warmth going to stay? The answer is NO! And this advective (I believe its called this) freeze with wind makes it even worse. I cannot even cover with the wind, which is expected to remain up even on Tues probably only to die down after dark so the temps can drop. I only hope whatever wind there is stays up off the Gulf!

[spockvr6]

Funny - the topic is is this warmth going to stay? The answer is NO! And this advective (I believe its called this) freeze with wind makes it even worse. I cannot even cover with the wind, which is expected to remain up even on Tues probably only to die down after dark so the temps can drop. I only hope whatever wind there is stays up off the Gulf!

At least with wind we won't get frost!

Plus, if the winds stay NW well be in better shape. I've only been in Tarpon Springs for 11 years but I've never seen the temp drop below freezing in that time when the winds were NW? Of course, there's a first time for everything!

[Dave-Vero]

NWS temperatures for tomorrow night seem to be dropping.

[gsytch]

A NW wind, such as right now, will keep us warm tonight and ANY flow out of the W will save us tomorrow night (fingers crossed). Right now I have 55.6F and a stiff breeze out of the W/NW but a clearly lower humidity. I am sure tonight will not be an issue. Wed morning will be, and possibly Thur morning if it is calm and dry.

[Dave-Vero]

With the west wind, 1:53 am temperatures are colder on the Atlantic coast than in Orlando or the Bay area.

[enigma99]

I see that current dew points are around 12F in the Orlando area. Hope you get some wind or clouds tonight.....

[spockvr6]

I see that current dew points are around 12F in the Orlando area. Hope you get some wind or clouds tonight.....

Yikes....I just checked KORL and their current dewpoint is 8F

Low dewpoints are not good with this type of situation.

On this coast, the dewpoint is hovering at 30F, but its barely cracked the low 50's at 2PM, so tonight has the potential to be very ugly.

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[gsytch]

YES! The wind died down.....only so the temperatures can plummet. Covering everything was a nightmare this afternoon, but sure enough those winds have ceased. It is going to be a loooooong, cold night. I believe this will help me cull out the plants. After such beautiful weather, for this POW! to come out of nowhere is heartbreaking.

[palmsOrl]

I knew when the temps only topped out around 47F in Orlando that tonight will almost certainly bring a freeze. The NWS seems a bit heavy-handed with the hard-freeze warnings extending so far south and covering most of the peninsula though, since a hard-freeze means temperatures below 28F for 4+ hours are expected. I doubt Orlando will even get as low as 28F.

-Michael

[gsytch]

Maybe the "official" temps will not go that low in orlando, but I just checked FAWN temps and your area is already middle 30's! They have Brooksville FAWN at 29F and Apopka at 36F, Kenansville at 35F....that is cold! Record cold I believe will be forthcoming, after such beautiful weather! arghhhhhhh

[Moose]

Official low this morning in Miami. FL 43F - in L.A., CA 56F

[Dakotafl]

Here palm bay it bottomed out at 31.3 at about 9:30 thru 10:30 then rose especially after midnight and stayed almost at a constant 34-35 degrees, i thought id be warmer but oh well, still a zone 10a winter.

There was spotty frost in the yard, hardly any on the trees or plants, bananas are of course not looking the best but im surprised my papaya came through good. I don't have much complaints after the last few winters

Edited by Dakotafl, 04 January 2012 - 05:27 AM.

[Eric in Orlando]

Only got to 35F here so no big deal this time.

[Dakotafl]

My low of 31 was so early and then the temp rose, It must have been the breeze that started towards 11:00, The wunderground station near me always seems to have low temps earlier on the coldest nights for some reason.

[gsytch]

Lows are all over the place. Brooksville reported 19F and Apopka 26F. Kenansville, in rural Osceola county, was 28F. Tampa was at 35F but they were deicing planes again??? Anyway could have been a LOT worse. 30F here for 4 hours at or below freezing, which surprises me because last winter I only got to 28F at the lowest. My Papaya (protected spot) actually looks good. Brugs toast and no palm damage evident, yet.

[Ray Tampa]

Tampa airport's 35 is accurate. That's the same low I had this morning. Watch out for another batch of freezing weather around mid month. Some of the GFS Ensemble models are showing AO values as low as -3 for that time frame. Keep the frost cloth handy.

[Moose]

It's been feeling Spring like lately. Tampa Ray says that Feb. 20 th is the "get over the hump" date for major severe cold events.