11 replies to this topic

[trioderob]

its official

http://www.cpc.ncep....ry/ensodisc.pdf

[Tyrone]

That was unexpected a few months ago. But if you look at world SST anomalies it certainly looks like a La Nina event has come out of the ashes of the southern hemisphere winter which normally halts previous La Nina events from continuing into the next southern summer. It could be another interesting weather watching season through the southern tropical wet season.

Best regards

Tyrone

[Tropicgardener]

They are saying that we are going to have another 'above average rainfall' wet season...... I say "bring it on!!!"

[Tyrone]

Hopefully it will spill over to the west coast.

[Mr Cycad]

History tells us that this isn't unexpected. Looks like we're in for another ripper growing season! I just don't want another Yasi!

[Ray Tampa]

Hopefully, it means a warmer winter here. Last year, it was overpowered by the Arctic Oscillation.

[Patricia-CR]

It will be excessive water/rainfall around here, as in floods, loss of agricultural products, mold everywhere, and a kind of 'seasonal depression' everywhere and in everybody for the lack of sun. We'll see how it goes. Last year was the worst in the last 50 years...

[happ]

Thanks for posting the forecast from the Climate Prediction Center, Bob!

La Nina conditions seemed to stick around this past year and offshore Pacific ocean temps are still well below normal to the extent that Blue whales have been observed off the southern California coastline in numbers never seen before. But it has gotten to the point that long-term forecasts are difficult to verify. Last winter was La Nina yet California experienced abundant rainfall which is atypical for negative ENSO events. A normal La Nina generally means much below normal rainfall for California and temps can be either above normal or below normal.

Some climatologists are forecasting a freeze for California this winter but it is anyone's guess!

[happ]

http://snowday.commu...om/default.aspx

The above link is from a weather site that focuses exclusively on winter forecasts; thus "Snow Day." Lots of data from a variety of sources. The graph on winter temps suggests warmer than normal conditions over the Southwest U.S. but cooler than normal in Florida and much of the nation. But something to consider is that a freeze could occur during a warmer than normal winter so even if it is relatively mild in California this winter that doesn't mean we couldn't experience widespread frost events.

[_Wal]

Warnings I'm hearing from the East coast of Aus (probably the entire country really) for the upcoming Spring/Summer is for severe storms and in between, high bushfire danger, I work with a dude in SES and that's the big tip. Sounds very Aussie doesn't it,

I love a sunburnt country,
A land of sweeping plains,
Of ragged mountain ranges,
Of droughts and flooding rains.
I love her far horizons,
I love her jewel-sea,
Her beauty and her terror –
The wide brown land for me!

[Tyrone]

It could be an interesting growing season again this year. I don't know what they are tipping for the west coast this year. In mid October the seasonal cyclone forecast comes out, so it might be a bit clearer then for my part of the world. I know from past experience that in La Nina years the weather over my area can be a tad boring and predictable (like Broome in winter)

Best regards

Tyrone

[amazondk]

Here on the southern side of the South American equatorial zone it has been an interestin dry season. After a very wet rainy season in June the rain faucett was turned off. We had a very dry July and most August. But, for the past several weeks the patterns have changed and there has been more and more rain. It is still dry season rain. But, the forecast is for increasing percipitation. And, that must have some La Niña influecen as La Niña means more rain in the Western Amazon region. This is just fine for me. The first two months of the dry season were intense and the switch to more clouds and rain is quite positive.

dk